沪锡市场周报：美元走强库存回升，预计锡价承压调整-20260116

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that the Shanghai tin price will face pressure and adjust in the short - term. It is expected to be adjusted at a high level in the short - term, with attention to the MA10 support, in the range of 39 - 42 [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose first and then pulled back. The weekly gain was + 14.95%, and the amplitude was 25.32%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 405,240 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Outlook: - Macro - level: The People's Bank of China decided to lower the re - loan and rediscount rates, and cut the monetary policy tool rates by 25 basis points, indicating that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. In the US, the number of initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 198,000 last week, the lowest since November last year. The US dollar rebounded to a more than one - month high [7]. - Fundamental - level: - Supply: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which are expected to continue to rise in the first quarter. Recently, tin ore processing fees have increased slightly, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. However, most smelting enterprises still have low raw material inventories and are operating at a loss. With more year - end maintenance, refined tin production continues to be restricted, but there is pressure for production to rebound after the Chinese New Year. In addition, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. Recently, the import window has opened, increasing import pressure [7]. - Demand: Recently, the rise in tin prices has led to a decline in downstream procurement demand, a significant increase in inventory, and a spot premium of 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined [7]. - Technical - level: With the reduction in positions and price adjustment, the bullish sentiment has declined, and there may be an adjustment [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Price Changes: As of January 16, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 405,240 yuan/ton, up 52,330 yuan/ton from January 9, a rise of 14.83%. As of January 15, 2026, the closing price of LME tin was 52,031 US dollars/ton, up 8,281 US dollars/ton from January 9, a rise of 18.93% [9][12]. - Ratio Changes: As of January 16, 2026, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.87, an increase of 0.33 from January 9. As of January 14, 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.67, a decrease of 0.32 from January 8 [16]. - Position Changes: As of January 16, 2026, the position of Shanghai tin was 115,615 lots, an increase of 9,920 lots from January 9, a growth rate of 9.39%. As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 3,681 lots, a decrease of 2,310 lots from December 22, 2025 [20]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Conditions - Supply - side: - Tin Ore Imports and Refined Tin Production: In November 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the refined tin production was 15,618 tons, and the cumulative refined tin production from January to October was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [26][27]. - Tin Ore Processing Fees: On January 16, 2026, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 7,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,000 yuan/ton from January 14, a growth rate of 15.38%. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 11,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,000 yuan/ton from January 14, a growth rate of 9.52% [32]. - Refined Tin Imports: As of January 15, 2026, the profit and loss of tin imports was 9,027.98 yuan/ton, a rise of 9,460.69 yuan/ton from January 9. In November 2025, the refined tin import volume was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin import was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the refined tin export volume was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin export was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [37][38]. - Inventory: As of January 15, 2026, the total LME tin inventory was 5,925 tons, an increase of 520 tons from January 8, a growth rate of 9.62%. As of January 16, 2026, the total tin inventory was 9,549 tons, an increase of 2,614 tons from last week, a growth rate of 37.69%. The tin futures inventory was 9,462 tons, an increase of 3,033 tons from January 9, a growth rate of 47.18% [41]. - Demand - side: - Semiconductor Index: On January 15, 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,837.3, a rise of 401.2 from January 8, a growth rate of 5.4% [44]. - Domestic Electronic Industry Output: From January to November 2025, the integrated circuit output was 43,184 million pieces, an increase of 3,657.072 million pieces compared with the same period last year, a growth rate of 9.25% [44]. - Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Exports: As of November 2025, the tin - plated sheet output was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from October 2025, a decline of 9.09%. The tin - plated sheet export volume was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons from October, a decline of 33.79% [47].