Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-16 09:23Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the fundamentals of the natural rubber market were mixed, with commodity sentiment driving the rubber price to rise and then回调. The offer center of the imported rubber market moved up, but the factory procurement sentiment was average. The futures market maintained a relatively strong oscillation pattern, and the domestic spot price slightly followed the rise of the futures market. The downstream procurement willingness was relatively weak, mainly for appropriate rigid - demand replenishment, and the overall market trading atmosphere was average with light actual transactions [7]. - The domestic natural rubber main production areas are in the off - season, while the Thai production area is still in the peak production season. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. The overall inventory accumulation rate has narrowed month - on - month, but the inventory accumulation intensity remains high. The arrival and warehousing at Qingdao Port show a seasonal decline trend, with the overall warehousing volume decreasing month - on - month, and the downstream rigid demand has improved, increasing the overall outbound volume [7]. - In terms of demand, this week, as the production arrangements of maintenance enterprises gradually stabilized, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. In the short term, supported by foreign trade orders, the operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high, and the overall production arrangement is expected to remain basically stable; full - steel tire enterprises still have production control phenomena to control inventory [7]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,700 - 16,400 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,700 - 13,250 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The natural rubber market fundamentals were mixed, and the rubber price rose and then回调. The offer center of imported rubber moved up, and the futures market was relatively strong. The domestic spot price slightly followed the rise, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, with light transactions [7]. - Market Outlook: Domestic production areas are in the off - season, and Thailand is in the peak season. Qingdao Port inventory is accumulating, but the arrival and warehousing are decreasing seasonally. The downstream rigid demand has improved, and the tire enterprise operating rate has increased [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,700 - 16,400, and the nr2603 contract between 12,700 - 13,250 [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.22%; the main contract price of No. 20 rubber oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.58% [12]. - Position Analysis: No specific data analysis content provided, only mentioned the position changes of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber [13][15]. - Inter - period Spread: As of January 16, the spread between Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 was 30, and the spread between No. 20 rubber 2 - 3 was - 35 [20]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of January 15, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 105,590 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week; No. 20 rubber warehouse receipts were 57,758 tons, an increase of 806 tons from last week [26]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price: As of January 15, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 15,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - No. 20 Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis: As of January 15, the No. 20 rubber basis was 535 yuan/ton, an increase of 149 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 995 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Upstream: As of January 16, the field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 58 (+2) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 52.2 (+0) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 12 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton from last week. The domestic Yunnan and Hainan production areas are in the off - season [41][44]. - Import: In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [50]. - Inventory in Qingdao: As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, an increase of 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [54]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Tire Operating Rate: As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [57]. - Tire Exports: In November 2025, China's tire exports were 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, China's cumulative tire exports were 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 237,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.04%; the export volume of truck and bus tires was 418,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.00% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65% [60]. - Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales): In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period last year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles [63].