Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-16 09:23Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market had a mixed performance this week, with most major indices rising except for the Shanghai Composite Index. The four stock index futures also showed differentiation, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming large-cap blue-chip stocks. The release of positive economic data drove the market up, but the increase in margin requirements for margin trading cooled market sentiment [9][15]. - The bond market strengthened this week. The central bank's structural interest rate cut aims to guide commercial banks to allocate credit resources precisely. However, the weak market allocation demand and the continuous supply pressure of long-term bonds may cause short-term interest rates to fluctuate [9]. - The commodity market faced upward pressure in the short term. Although domestic price recovery is expected to boost the commodity index, the strengthening of the US dollar index and the decline of crude oil prices due to eased supply risks have affected the index [9]. - The foreign exchange market is affected by geopolitical tensions and the Fed's policy. The US dollar may fluctuate within a range, and the euro may be moderately supported in the long term, while the Japanese yen may continue to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Summary by Directory This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - Stock Market: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell 0.57%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures fell 0.35%. A-share major indices generally rose this week, except for the Shanghai Composite Index. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with small and medium-cap stocks stronger. The release of inflation and import-export data drove the market up, but the increase in margin requirements for margin trading led to a decline. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [9][15]. - Bond Market: The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 0.17%, and the main 10-year Treasury bond futures rose 0.27%. The bond market strengthened this week. The central bank's structural interest rate cut aims to guide credit allocation, but the weak market demand and supply pressure may cause short-term interest rate fluctuations. The allocation suggestion is to operate within a range [9]. - Commodity Market: The Wind Commodity Index rose 14.29%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose 2.97%. The commodity market faced short-term upward pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar index and the decline of crude oil prices. The allocation suggestion is to wait and see [9]. - Foreign Exchange Market: The euro against the US dollar fell 0.19%, and the euro against the US dollar 2603 contract fell 0.24%. Geopolitical tensions and the Fed's policy have led to increased uncertainty in the foreign exchange market. The US dollar may fluctuate within a range, and the euro may be moderately supported in the long term, while the Japanese yen may continue to fluctuate in the short term. The allocation suggestion is to be cautious and wait and see [9]. Important News and Events - Domestic News: The State Council deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial cooperation; the National Business Work Conference outlined key tasks for 2026; four departments jointly issued a work plan for government investment funds; and the Ministry of Commerce reported progress in the China-EU electric vehicle case [17]. - International News: The Fed released its economic "Beige Book"; the criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell continued to ferment; the World Bank raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026; and Trump announced a 25% tariff on all business partners of Iran [19]. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - China: In December, the year-on-year export rate in US dollars was 6.6%, the import rate was 5.7%, the M1 money supply growth rate was 3.8%, and the M2 money supply growth rate was 8.5% [20]. - US: In December, the unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%, the unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.6%, the November retail sales monthly rate was 0.6%, the November PPI annual rate was 3%, and the initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10 were 198,000 [20]. - EU: In November, the industrial output monthly rate in the eurozone was 0.7% [20]. - UK: In November, the three-month GDP monthly rate was 0.1%, and the manufacturing output monthly rate was 2.1% [20]. - Germany: The full-year GDP growth rate in 2025 was 0.2% [20]. - France: In December, the CPI monthly rate was 0.1% [20]. - Japan: In November, the trade balance was 625.3 billion yen [20]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - January 20: China's one-year loan prime rate, Germany's December PPI monthly rate, and the UK's December unemployment rate [82]. - January 21: The UK's December CPI monthly rate, retail price index monthly rate, and the US's December pending home sales index monthly rate [82]. - January 22: The US's initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17, the third-quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate, the third-quarter real personal consumption expenditure quarterly rate, and the third-quarter core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate [82]. - January 23: Japan's central bank target rate, Japan's December core CPI annual rate, the UK's December seasonally adjusted retail sales monthly rate, and the US's January University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [82].