集运指数（欧线）期货周报-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed down 2.59%, and the far - month contracts fell between 3% and 8%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1956.39, up 160.56 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.9% [6][39]. - The cancellation of the full - refund of value - added tax on photovoltaic products is expected to lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume. However, after the trading sentiment stabilizes, the price increase fades, and the support from the spot side weakens, causing the futures price to decline [6][39]. - China's foreign trade level in December 2026 rebounded beyond expectations, with significant improvements in both imports and exports, possibly related to the cancellation of value - added tax export rebates for some commodities and pre - holiday rush exports. China's exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2026 [6][39]. - Spot freight rates for the fourth week were between $2600 - $3200 for large containers. Maersk's large container price in the fourth week was $2700, up $100 from the third week [6][39]. - Geopolitically, there are expectations of an end to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the first half of 2026, and the expectation of the Red Sea's resumption of navigation has improved. Eurozone inflation pressure has eased, weakening the market's expectation of an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank before the end of the year [6][39]. - Overall, the announced freight rate increase has not been implemented, many shipping companies have successively lowered prices, weakening the support for futures prices. The effect of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy on rush exports has also quickly weakened after the trading sentiment cooled. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of shipping companies' announced price increases. Although trade relations are gradually improving, China's exports to the US are still under pressure, and the boost from the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious [7][40]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - Futures contracts: EC2602 fell 1.13%, EC2604 fell 2.59%, EC2606 fell 7.67%, EC2608 fell 3.61%, EC2610 fell 4.69%, and EC2612 fell 4.22%. The SCFIS index rose 8.9% [10]. - The price of the main contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures first rose and then fell this week. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2604 contract showed differentiation [13][15]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - The central bank took measures to support high - quality economic development, including lowering re - loan and re - discount rates, increasing various loan quotas, and adjusting the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing mortgages. The central bank said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [19]. - The US will impose a 25% import ad - valorem tariff on some imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives starting from January 15 [19]. - The World Bank raised its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 2.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. It predicted that the US GDP growth rate will reach 2.2% in 2026, while the economic growth rates of the Eurozone and Japan will slow down [19]. - The EU will issue a guidance document on price commitment applications for the China - EU electric vehicle case, and China's electromechanical chamber of commerce will encourage and support relevant enterprises to apply for price commitments [19]. 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and price difference of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts shrank this week [26]. - The export container freight rate index rebounded slightly this week [27]. - Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the shipping capacity on the European line rebounded slightly. The BDI and BPI declined this week, and freight rates fluctuated slightly [31]. - The charter price of Panamax ships declined this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar narrowed [34]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined this week. The cancellation of the full - refund of value - added tax on photovoltaic products led to short - term price increases, but the effect weakened later. China's foreign trade improved in December, and spot freight rates increased slightly. Geopolitical factors improved the expectation of the Red Sea's resumption of navigation, and Eurozone inflation pressure eased [39]. - The announced freight rate increase has not been implemented, and the support for futures prices has weakened. The boost from the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data [40].