瑞达期货铂镍金市场周报-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. Macro - wise, the US PPI in November last year was slightly higher than expected, the CPI inflation in December continued a mild trend, and the non - farm payrolls increase was lower than expected. There is still room for a 50 - 75 basis point interest rate cut this year, and the Fed's balance - sheet expansion plan boosts the narrative of liquidity easing. Supply - side issues include a 37% year - on - year drop in the net profit of Russia's Norilsk and concerns about palladium exports in 2026. In South Africa, power supply has been stable, reducing the short - term probability of platinum mine shutdowns, but long - term maintenance issues remain. Overall, in 2026, the global platinum mine production recovery lags behind demand, and the supply - demand gap and depletion of above - ground inventory are expected to continue. The EU's new policies may promote the "platinum substitution for palladium" process, and the platinum substitution elasticity may increase to 450,000 ounces. The use of platinum in gasoline catalytic converters is expected to grow by over 2% year - on - year, and the global electrolyzer construction capacity is expected to exceed 17 GW, supporting the demand for PEM catalysts. In the long - run, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium dominates the trading rhythm, and a "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market is likely to continue. The resistance and support levels for London platinum are $2500/oz and $1900/oz respectively, and for London palladium, they are $1900/oz and $1500/oz respectively [7] Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - This week, the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. Macro factors include US economic data, supply - side issues in Russia and South Africa, and expected trends in supply - demand, substitution, and new demand areas like hydrogen energy. In the long - term, a "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market is expected, and the price ranges of London platinum and palladium are given [7] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The platinum and palladium markets fluctuated within a range this week. As of January 16, 2026, the main palladium contract 2606 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was at 469.35 yuan/gram, down 5.95% week - on - week, and the main platinum contract 2606 was at 610.05 yuan/gram, up 1.71% week - on - week. NYMEX platinum and palladium long - position net holdings continued to diverge, with palladium net holdings in a continuous outflow pattern. As of January 06, 2026, NYMEX platinum long - position net holdings were 23,914 contracts, up 1.18% month - on - month, and palladium long - position net holdings were - 2341 contracts, up 51.42% month - on - month. The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts weakened this week. NYMEX platinum inventory decreased by 6.33% month - on - month, and palladium inventory increased by 0.19% month - on - month as of January 15, 2026. The price ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold significantly increased since early 2025, the rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices rose, and the positive correlation between platinum price, NYMEX platinum inventory, and the US dollar index dropped from a high level [8][12][13] 3. Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of November 2025, both platinum import and export volumes decreased. The demand for platinum in automotive exhaust catalysts weakened marginally, and the total global demand for platinum and palladium showed a mild slow - down trend. Due to geopolitical conflicts and power supply disruptions, the global supply of platinum and palladium declined, and the price difference between domestic and international platinum and palladium markets became flatter [40][46][57] 4. Macroeconomic and Options - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield continued to rebound [65]