热卷日报：震荡整理-20260116

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. Anti-involution policies still hold potential, providing strong downside support. The weekly apparent demand has rebounded, remaining strong year-on-year, indicating robust demand resilience during the off-season. The warming sentiment of winter storage may stimulate a wave of demand. Although the total inventory is relatively high, it has been continuously decreasing recently, and if this trend continues, the pressure will ease. The hot-rolled coil futures are currently trading strongly above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips. However, it should be noted that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [6]. 3. Summary of Each Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume and open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased on Friday. The intraday price fluctuated within a narrow range, with the lowest price at 3308 yuan and the highest at 3344 yuan. It closed at 3315 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.33% from the previous trading day. The short-term moving average retraced to the support level around the 10-day moving average and then rebounded, and it is trading strongly above the medium-term 20-day moving average [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between the futures and spot prices is -5 yuan, indicating a slight premium of the futures over the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of January 15, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 billion tons compared with the previous week, but decreased by 11.83 million tons year-on-year. The production has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of molten iron from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production by steel mills after annual maintenance [4]. - Demand side: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 5.82 million tons to 3.1416 billion tons, showing a significant rebound this week and an increase of 0.51 million tons year-on-year. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating that the demand still has resilience [4]. - Inventory side: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 5.8 million tons to 3.6233 billion tons on a weekly basis (the social inventory decreased by 5.01 million tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 0.79 million tons). The total inventory continued to decline, indicating that the current demand for hot-rolled coils has resilience. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, but if the de-stocking trend continues, the downward pressure on prices will be reduced [4]. - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. The government also aims to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply-side production, expectation of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [6]. - Bearish factors: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].