养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of the breeding industry chain, including soybeans, corn, eggs, and pigs, providing corresponding investment suggestions based on different product situations, such as soybeans continuing to fluctuate, corn having buying opportunities on dips, eggs having potential in the medium - long term and trying to buy at relatively low points, and pig futures suggesting buying on dips in the far - month contracts [1][2][4]. Summary by Related Categories Soybeans - Northeast soybean spot prices are high, with a tight supply of high - protein soybeans, and the price of 39% protein commercial beans is around 2.2 yuan per catty [1]. - The two - way bidding transaction of 30,000 tons of domestic soybeans organized by Sinograin on Tuesday was fully completed [1]. - The market demand has some support, but the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans on the futures market exceeds 800 yuan per ton, and if the domestic soybean price rises further, the demand will be affected. It is estimated that soybeans will continue to fluctuate [1]. Corn - The current corn spot is in a situation of volatile upward movement. In the Northeast, due to the reduction of farmers' remaining grain, the window period for farmers to sell grain is short, and the enthusiasm for selling grain is weak. The supply of corn at the grass - roots level is tight [1]. - On the demand side, due to the increase in imported and policy - based corn supply, the difficulty for enterprises to purchase has decreased slightly. Enterprises are not willing to accept high - priced grain sources, and the mainstream quotation is relatively stable. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [1]. Eggs - Since July 2025, the sample chicken - chick replenishment volume (accounting for 50% of the actual replenishment) has declined year - on - year, with the decline rate increasing month by month in the second half of the year. From August to December, the year - on - year decline rates of monthly chicken - chick sales were 9.4%, 14.1%, 12.7%, 13.4%, and 13.9% respectively [2]. - It is estimated that from January to May 2026, the number of newly - opened laying hens will remain at a low level. The low replenishment in the second half of 2025 will significantly reduce the pressure on newly - opened laying hens in the first half of 2026 [2]. - The short - term upward space of eggs is suppressed by the loose spot market, but in the medium - long term, the price does not allow excessive short - selling. Pay attention to capacity reduction and try to buy at relatively low points [2]. Pigs - In 2025, the actual total出栏量 of domestic pig - breeding enterprises increased steadily, reaching 155.79 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 18.38% compared with 131.6 million heads in 2024. The出栏量 showed significant pre - festival and post - festival differences and seasonal characteristics [3]. - The current pig supply is in the stage of capacity optimization and regional reconstruction. The appropriate reduction of the breeding sow inventory lays a foundation for medium - long - term supply - demand balance. The market will still face short - term structural pressure, but the supply pattern is expected to gradually re - balance in 2026 [4]. - The capacity reduction of pigs is accelerating obviously, indicating an upward price expectation for the far - month contracts. It is recommended to mainly buy on dips in the far - month contracts [4].