焦炭日报：短期偏震荡对待-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term oscillatory outlook for coke, with a low - buying strategy [2] Core Viewpoints - Coke's supply - demand pattern is affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policies. Coking coal inventory is lower than usual, while coke inventory is at a moderately high level, with overall weak supply - demand. The seasonal inventory build - up of downstream steel mills and the increase in hot metal production have boosted short - term demand for coking coal and coke. With a positive macro - market atmosphere and domestic reserve requirement ratio cuts, coke is expected to be oscillatory in the short term [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of January 9, independent coking enterprises' coke inventory decreased by 6.04% to 86.07 million tons, steel mills' coke inventory increased by 0.27% to 645.73 million tons, port coke inventory rose to 249.1 million tons, and the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 2.22 million tons to 980.9 million tons, reaching a 3 - month high and a year - on - year decrease of over 1% [1] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 45 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 30 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 17 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 86 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 9 yuan/ton [1] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.37% to 79.31%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.78% to 86.04%, the steel mill profitability decreased by 0.44% to 37.66%, and the daily average hot metal output continued to increase by 2.07 million tons to 229.5 million tons, reaching a one - month high and a year - on - year increase of 5.13 million tons or 2.29% [1] Upstream Situation - Coal mine coking coal inventory continued to increase slightly, port inventory increased by 551.96 million tons, independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory increased to 1071.68 million tons, and steel mills' coking coal inventory decreased by 797.73 million tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased to 2716.37 million tons, reaching a nearly 9 - month high, with a year - on - year decrease of over 15% [2] News - The central bank will lower the re - loan and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points from January 19; there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year; the central bank will consider conducting treasury bond trading operations; promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery is an important consideration for monetary policy; the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing mortgages is reduced to 30% [2] - The financial regulatory authority will promote the regular operation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism and support the resolution of financing platform debt risks in accordance with the law [2] - China's M2 money supply annual rate in December was 8.5%, higher than the expected 8% and the previous value of 8% [2] Main Logic - Coke's supply - demand pattern is affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policies. Coking coal inventory is lower than usual, while coke inventory is at a moderately high level, with overall weak supply - demand. The seasonal inventory build - up of downstream steel mills and the increase in hot metal production have boosted short - term demand for coking coal and coke. With a positive macro - market atmosphere and domestic reserve requirement ratio cuts, coke is expected to be oscillatory in the short term [2] Futures Market Performance - The opening price of the coke main contract was 1741, the closing price was 1717, the intraday position increased by 1479 lots, the previous low was 1625.5, and the previous high was 1817.5. Attention should be paid to the support of the previous low and the pressure of the previous high [4]