中国银行业展望

Investment Rating - The overall investment outlook for the banking industry is stable, with no significant changes expected in credit quality over the next 12 to 18 months [54]. Core Insights - The banking industry is expected to maintain a steady development trend in 2026, supported by effective policy measures that will enhance the stability of the banking sector [5][7]. - The industry will continue to experience strong regulation, focusing on risk prevention and high-quality development, with banks optimizing their operational strategies [7][8]. - The asset scale of banks is projected to grow steadily, with improvements in deposit costs and a narrowing of loan interest rate declines [25][26]. - The profitability of banks has been slightly pressured since 2025, but overall asset quality remains good, with liquidity indicators showing a high safety margin [28][31]. Industry Fundamentals Analysis - The banking industry is expected to continue under a "strong regulation" framework, guiding banks towards high-quality development and maintaining overall credit risk at controllable levels [8]. - Regulatory policies will focus on supporting the resolution of real estate and local government debt risks, which will positively impact the banking sector's credit [9][13]. - The banking sector's asset growth has rebounded due to a moderately loose monetary policy and increased funding directed towards national strategic areas [15]. Credit Performance of Industry Enterprises - Since 2025, the banking industry's profitability has faced slight pressure, with net interest margins declining but at a reduced rate [31]. - The overall credit situation in the banking sector remains stable, with a few banks experiencing downgrades due to deteriorating asset quality and weak profitability [52]. - The integration of small and medium-sized banks is accelerating, which is expected to reduce the number of banking institutions and alleviate credit risk pressures [29][53]. Conclusion - The banking industry is anticipated to continue its high-quality development trajectory in 2026, supported by favorable fiscal and monetary policies [54]. - The financial performance of banks is expected to remain stable, although net interest margins will likely stay at the lower end of the range, with some regional banks facing asset quality pressures [54].