铁矿日报：库存持续累库，铁水稍有回落-20260116

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core观点 - The iron ore market is expected to remain volatile and slightly weak in the short term, with limited downside potential due to the back structure and positive basis of the futures contracts, as well as the gradual transfer of inventory from ports to steel mills [5]. 3. Summary by Section Market行情态势回顾 - The main iron ore futures contract continued to trade in a narrow range, closing at 812 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 256,000 lots, and open interest was 649,000 lots, with a capital inflow of 11.591 billion yuan. The price is expected to test the lower support in the short term [1]. - Spot prices of major port varieties in Qingdao were relatively stable, while the swap price declined again. The basis of PB powder in Qingdao Port was 40.2 yuan/ton, with little change. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and positive basis, indicating limited downside potential but a short - term weakening trend [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments decreased on a month - on - month basis, especially in Brazil. Port arrivals increased, and high arrivals are expected to continue. On the demand side, hot metal production decreased, some blast furnace restart was postponed, steel mill profitability improved, and steel mills started to replenish inventory. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory pressure was increasing, while steel mill inventory was still significantly lower than the historical average [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: Consumption supported the economy, inflation declined, and the Fed maintained a wait - and - see attitude. The US economy was in a "light to moderate" expansion, with regional differences in performance. Employment was mainly for filling vacancies, and price pressure generally eased [4]. - Domestic: Incremental policies were continuously introduced to ensure a good start. The current economic situation was still in the off - season, but the policies issued since the fourth quarter were entering the implementation stage. The central bank announced a 900 - billion - yuan six - month outright reverse repurchase operation on January 15 [4].