烧碱日报：供需弱势出新低，跟踪生产企业减产情况-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The caustic soda market is currently in a pattern of high inventory and high supply. With the short - term supply - demand being weak, the price is expected to remain weak. However, an oversold rebound should be guarded against. Attention should be paid to the start - up conditions of electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises and the production reduction of caustic soda production enterprises [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - From January 2nd to 8th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4% [1] - From January 3rd to 9th, the alumina start - up rate increased by 1.07% week - on - week to 85.74%. From January 5th to 8th, the viscose staple fiber start - up rate increased by 3.01% week - on - week to 88.43%, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 0.72% week - on - week to 60.09% [1] - As of January 8th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the whole country was 495,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 1.96% and a year - on - year increase of 76.03% [1] - From January 2nd to 8th, the weekly average profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 183 yuan/ton [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The People's Bank of China will use a variety of monetary policy tools including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity. Starting from January 19th, 2026, it will lower the rediscount and relending rates by 0.25 percentage points [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Caustic soda is in a high - inventory and high - supply pattern. The short - term decline is due to low - price warehouse receipts and pre - holiday inventory reduction pressure. The traditional concentrated maintenance seasons for chlor - alkali enterprises are from March to May in spring and from September to October in autumn. The main downstream alumina has rebounded recently, and the electrolytic aluminum industry operates stably [3]