格林大华期货早盘提示：铜-20260116

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper sector in the non - ferrous metals industry is "oscillating with a downward bias" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The core factor driving the copper price to break through the historical high is the concern about the US imposing tariffs on refined copper in the future, which leads to the concentration of global copper liquidity in the US. At the beginning of 2026, the non - commercial long and net long positions of COMEX copper, as well as the long and net long positions of LME copper investment funds, all continued to rise. The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell and the Trump administration's threat to the Fed are expected to put pressure on the Fed regarding interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to metals with strong financial attributes such as gold, silver, copper, platinum, and palladium [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The night - session closing price of the main copper contract CU2603 was 102,860 yuan/ton, a 0.7% decline from the previous night - session closing price. The second - main contract CU2604 closed at 103,080 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.74%. As of 06:00 on January 16, 2026, the closing price of the COMEX copper main contract HGH26E was 5.9915 US dollars per pound (equivalent to 92,063 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 6.9698), a 1.7% decline from the previous trading day. The LME copper main contract CA03 closed at 13,148.5 US dollars per ton (equivalent to 91,642 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 6.9698), a 0.3% decline [1] Important Information - On January 15, Codelco announced that its Ministro Hales copper mine had obtained environmental approval, with its operating life extended to 2054 and annual production capacity increased from 170,000 tons to 200,000 tons [1] - On January 15, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 LME copper price forecast from 11,400 US dollars per ton to 12,200 US dollars per ton [1] - On January 11, China Non - Ferrous Metal Mining (1258.HK) released a production guidance, expecting a total copper production of about 484,000 tons in 2026, including about 134,000 tons of cathode copper and about 350,000 tons of blister copper/anode copper. The main and auxiliary shafts of the southeast ore body of Zhongse Feikuang Qianbi were repaired in December 2025, and the mine resumed production on January 1, 2026 [1] - On January 13, Codelco's chairman said that the company's copper production in 2026 was expected to reach 1.344 million tons, an increase of about 10,000 tons compared to 2025 [1] Market Logic - The fear of US tariffs on refined copper led to the concentration of global copper liquidity in the US, causing the LME copper inventory in Europe to decline from nearly 70,000 tons to less than 15,000 tons since April, and the COMEX copper inventory to rise from less than 100,000 short tons to over 500,000 tons. The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell and the Trump administration's threat to the Fed are expected to put pressure on interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to metals with strong financial attributes [1] Trading Strategy - There is no trading strategy provided at present [1]