弘业纯碱周报：分析师范阿骄-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core of soda ash futures is "strong supply, weak demand, high inventory, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. Fundamentals are dominated by negative factors. There is a long - short game in the market, but the bears are in the dominant position, and there is no substantial rebound in the short term." The SA2605 main contract fluctuated weakly in the range of 1,190 - 1,230 yuan/ton this week and closed at 1,193 yuan/ton on January 16th. The 20 - day moving average formed a suppression. The trading volume of SA2605 exceeded 5.71 million lots this week, and the open interest reached 1.196 million lots, making it the most active contract in the entire market, indicating high - level participation of funds. The net short position of the main contract continued to increase, with the bears increasing their positions more aggressively than the bulls, and the market sentiment was bearish. - The core suppression factors are strong supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Although there were small rebounds driven by the sentiment in the chemical sector, they lacked fundamental support and quickly declined. Downstream players were highly cautious, mainly making purchases based on rigid demand, and speculative demand was not sustainable. In the short term, the market is expected to remain fluctuating weakly, with the reference range of 1,180 - 1,230 yuan/ton. In the medium term, the oversupply situation is difficult to change, and it is advisable to short on rallies, paying attention to the pressure level around 1,300 yuan/ton. It is recommended to mainly observe or take small - short positions in the short term and set stop - losses. In the medium term, short positions can be established after rebounds [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - This week, the fundamental pressure on the soda ash market remained unchanged. The supply side continued to operate at a high level, inventory continued to accumulate, and the weak demand for heavy soda ash dragged down the overall trend. Although the futures price fluctuated downward, the downward space was limited due to the cost bottom line and the structural demand for light soda ash. The market is still in a volatile pattern of "weak reality and expectation - based game" in the short term [2] Supply - The weekly output of soda ash this week was 77.53 tons. As of January 15th, the national operating rate of soda ash remained at a high level of 86.82%, among which the operating rate of the ammonia - soda process was 89.95%, and that of the co - production process was 78.88%. The capacity utilization rate was stable, and the release rhythm of new production capacity did not slow down. The weekly output reached 75.36 tons, showing a significant month - on - month increase, and the pressure on the supply side continued [2] Demand - The daily melting volume of float glass this week was 150,700 tons, an increase of 680 tons month - on - month, while that of photovoltaic glass was 87,200 tons, a decrease of 950 tons. The demand for heavy soda ash was affected by the slight decline in the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash continued to weaken, with low purchasing willingness from downstream players. The operating rate of the lithium carbonate industry remained above 87%, providing stable support for light soda ash and becoming the main supporting force on the demand side [2] Inventory - As of January 15th, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers nationwide was 1.575 million tons, an increase of 10,300 tons (+0.66%) week - on - week, with inventory accumulating for multiple consecutive weeks, and the inventory pressure showed no sign of relief. The inventory of heavy soda ash increased from 720,700 tons on January 12th to 738,000 tons, an increase of 17,300 tons week - on - week, reflecting the weak demand in the downstream glass industry. The inventory of light soda ash slightly decreased from 844,000 tons to 837,000 tons, indicating relatively resilient demand on the light soda ash side. The social inventory increased slightly, with the total amount exceeding 380,000 tons, an increase of over 10,000 tons. The previous replenishment transactions of futures - cash traders were good, and enterprises were gradually making deliveries [2] Profit - The production cost of soda ash remained at a high level, and the industry as a whole was in a state of deep loss. Although the price fluctuations of steam coal pushed up the cost, the long - term loss in the industry suppressed the willingness for active production cuts. The cost line became an important support for the price decline, forming a weak equilibrium pattern of "low profit + high inventory" [2]