钢材&铁矿石日报：市场情绪趋弱，钢矿震荡调整-20260116

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rose 0.06% after hitting a high and falling back, with increasing volume and open interest. Given the weak demand, stable supply, and weakening commodity sentiment, rebar prices are expected to face pressure and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated, rising 0.33% with increasing volume and open interest. Although the demand for hot-rolled coil is resilient and the fundamentals are stable, the supply is at a high level and there are concerns about demand. If demand weakens, industrial contradictions may accumulate, and prices may face pressure. In the short term, prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated weakly, falling 0.49% with increasing volume and decreasing open interest. Despite positive commodity sentiment and lingering bullish factors, the supply of iron ore is high while demand is weakly stable. The fundamentals are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Ore prices will oscillate at a high level, and there is a risk of prices weakening if the trading logic switches to the industrial side. Attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The Financial Regulatory Administration aims to promote the regular operation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, resolve risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions, and prevent and resolve risks in related fields [7]. - In December 2025, the sales of various excavators reached 23,095 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%. In 2025, a total of 235,257 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 17% [8]. - The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is restarting a $29 billion iron ore export development plan, aiming to build a comprehensive mining and infrastructure project in the northern region, with an initial planned annual export capacity of about 50 million tons [9]. 2. Spot Market - In the spot market, prices and price changes are provided for rebar, hot-rolled coil, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, PB fines, Tangshan iron concentrate, freight rates, SGX swaps, and iron ore price indexes [10]. 3. Futures Market - In the futures market, the relevant information of the main contracts of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, including closing price, price change percentage, high and low price, trading volume, change in trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest, is presented [12]. 4. Related Charts - Steel Inventory: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil [14][15][20]. - Iron Ore Inventory: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory changes, seasonal patterns, inventory of 247 steel mills, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [22][23][26]. - Steel Mill Production: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, proportion of profitable steel mills, independent electric furnace operating rate, and profit and loss situation of steel mills [29][31][32]. 5. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply is weakly stable, and there is a possibility of increased production. Demand has improved but remains at a low level, and prices are expected to face pressure and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [37]. - Hot-rolled Coil: Supply is at a high level, and there are concerns about demand. The short-term trend will be oscillating, and attention should be paid to demand performance [37]. - Iron Ore: Supply is high, and demand is weakly stable. Ore prices will oscillate at a high level, and there is a risk of prices weakening if the trading logic switches to the industrial side. Attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [38].