苹果周报：高位大幅回落，关注节日备货情况-20260116

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The inventory of apples in cold storage is at a historically low level, providing some support for apple prices. As the Spring Festival stocking season begins, the cold storage shipment volume is gradually increasing, but some traders are slightly cautious. After the futures price soared and then dropped significantly, there is still some support below. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and wait for the market to stabilize [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review The main contract of apple futures AP2605 reached a high of 10,019 yuan/ton and then dropped significantly, with a weekly decline of 1.53% [8]. 3.2 Supply - side Situation As of January 15, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 6.5557 billion tons, and the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 49.78%, 3.55 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The defective rate of low - price apples from fruit farmers is relatively high, and the packaging volume of gift boxes in cold storage this year is lower than that of last year [13]. 3.3 Demand - side Situation - Cold Storage Shipment Volume: As of January 15, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.35 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 10.90%. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 51.37%, with a weekly decrease of 1.17 percentage points, and in Shaanxi it was 47.69%, with a weekly decrease of 1.49 percentage points. With the Spring Festival stocking season, the cold - storage shipment volume is increasing [18]. - Export Volume: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. The export volume recovered in November due to the delayed listing of new - season apples and increased overseas demand near Christmas [20]. - Alternative Fruit Prices: No specific analysis content provided. - Origin Spot Price: As of January 16, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The intended collection price of Grade 1 and 2 apples over 80 was 3.7 - 4.0 yuan/jin for flaky red apples from fruit farmers, 4.0 - 4.7 yuan/jin for striped apples, and 4.2 - 5.2 yuan/jin for merchant goods. The price of Grade 1, 2, and 3 apples from fruit farmers over 80 was 3.5 - 3.6 yuan/jin, with stable transactions [32].