中航期货橡胶周度报告-20260116

Report Summary - The rainfall in the main Southeast Asian natural rubber producing areas decreased from January 14 to January 20, 2026, reducing the impact on tapping work [6] - On January 9, 2026, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange officially released the new regulations for 20 - rubber futures, mainly including introducing the concept of "substitute" and adjusting the delivery rules [6] - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.4% and 9.4% [6] Core View - This week, the rubber market showed a sideways - oscillating trend. The market sentiment cooled down, and the emotional premium in the market faded. The rubber fundamentals changed little. Without positive resonance, the market will oscillate in the short term [7][28] Multi - empty Focus Bullish Factors - The demand for replenishing stocks of natural rubber overseas raw materials supports the upward trend of raw material prices [11] - The price of butadiene is running strongly [11] Bearish Factors - The inventory of natural rubber is increasing slightly, and the inventory reduction is not smooth [11] - The production of butadiene rubber is at a high level, and the inventory in the factory fluctuates at a high level [11] - The slow reduction of tire inventory restricts the capacity utilization rate of enterprises [11] Data Analysis - As of January 15, 2026, the prices of glue and cup - lump in Thailand have increased, while the raw material prices in Hainan and Yunnan in China have changed little. The cost support of rubber is strengthening [14] - As of January 11, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.256 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. The inventory in Qingdao continued to accumulate [16] - This week, the price of domestic butadiene continued to rise. As of January 15, 2026, the theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber turned from profit to loss, and the production profit was under pressure [17] - As of January 16, 2026, the weekly output and inventory of butadiene rubber in China increased. The supply was loose, and the inventory fluctuated at a high level [20] - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises rebounded after the holiday, but the downstream demand was limited, and the inventory had pressure to reduce, which restricted the increase of the capacity utilization rate. The capacity utilization rate will decline seasonally during the Spring Festival [21] - As of January 15, 2026, the spread of the "RU - NR" main contract was strong, and the spread of the "NR - BR" main contract shrank, mainly due to the difference in the driving force of the raw material end [23] Market Outlook - The market sentiment cooled down this week, and the emotional premium in the market faded [26] - The cost support of natural rubber is strengthening, but the inventory continues to accumulate. The price of butadiene rubber raw material is rising, but the production profit is under pressure. The capacity utilization rate of the tire industry rebounds after the holiday but will decline seasonally during the Spring Festival [28] - The rubber market will oscillate in the short term due to the fading of market sentiment premium and technical pressure [28]