铜产业链周度报告-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term, with a relatively limited correction range. Attention should be paid to opportunities for going long at low prices [5][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US employment data shows that in December 2025, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm employment population increased by 50,000, lower than the market expectation. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to 56,000, and the October data was further revised down. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%. The CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining flat compared to the previous value. The initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation [5][12]. - The US will impose a 25% import ad - valorem tariff on some imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives starting from the 15th. However, copper input materials including refined copper are not subject to the tariff, which eases the concern of copper flowing to the US and weakens the support for copper prices [12]. - In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2%. The PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [13]. - China's State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial coordination, and the central bank introduced a series of measures to support high - quality economic development. The central bank also stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [17]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - Bullish Factors: The tight situation of copper mines remains unchanged, and the registered warrants of LME have dropped sharply [8]. - Bearish Factors: The rebound of the US dollar index increases the pressure on non - ferrous metals, the macro sentiment has weakened, and the domestic social inventory of copper continues to accumulate [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Copper Mine Supply: In 2025, the global copper mine supply was severely disrupted by various events, and the supply of copper concentrates is expected to have a significant gap. The gap may further expand in 2026 and turn to a loose state in 2027 [21]. - Copper Concentrate TC: As of the week of January 9, the My steel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 44.81 dollars/ton dry, down 0.08 dollars/ton dry from the previous week. The strike at the Chilean Mantoverde copper mine intensifies the market's concern about supply shortages [24]. - Electrolytic Copper Output: In December, the SMM China electrolytic copper output increased by 75,000 tons month - on - month, with a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The estimated output in January 2026 was 1.1636 million tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease [28]. - Scrap Copper Import: In November, China's scrap copper import volume was 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.9%. However, it is expected that the scrap copper supply will tighten in 2026 due to increased global demand [32]. - Copper Rod Production: In December 2025, the production of domestic copper rods decreased by 16.61% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate decreased. In January 2026, the production and capacity utilization rate increased slightly, but the overall increase was limited [36]. - Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference: As of January 15, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around 2,950 yuan/ton, which is still at a high level, not conducive to refined copper consumption [39]. - Copper Inventory: Last week, LME copper inventory decreased slightly, COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate, and SHFE copper inventory increased significantly. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper also accumulated [50]. - Copper Spot Premium: On January 15, the spot premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper was around - 120 yuan/ton, with an expanded discount. The LME0 - 3 spot premium was around 37.6 dollars/ton, with an expanded premium [54]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Copper prices will maintain high - level volatility in the short term, with a relatively limited correction range, and attention should be paid to opportunities for going long at low prices [57].