沥青周度报告-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices continued to rebound driven by geopolitical risks, but the asphalt futures market did not follow the oil price increase, showing a wide - range oscillatory trend. The asphalt is currently at a significant premium relative to crude oil, and the short - term price increase cannot drive the futures market to rise continuously. Also, the increase in spot prices has not improved downstream trading, and the fundamentals lack support [8]. - The cost increase caused by tight raw materials is expected to continue. The change in Venezuela's crude oil export model may end the previous large - discount situation, which will increase the cost pressure on some local refineries, restrict the industry's operating rate, and support the asphalt futures market from the supply side [8][54]. - The driving factor in the crude oil market has shifted to geopolitics. The uncertainty of US President Trump's attitude towards military action against Iran intensifies market volatility. Overall, the asphalt futures market is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation. If oil prices experience a significant correction, the asphalt price may test the previous low [8][54]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Key Data: As of January 14, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 27.2%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous statistical period. As of January 16, the weekly asphalt production in China was 488,000 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons from the previous week. The factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 622,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the previous week. The social inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 815,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous week [8]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to focus on the range of 3,100 - 3,250 yuan/ton for the BU2603 contract [9]. 3.2 Multi - Air Focus - Bullish Factors: Raw material disturbances and geopolitical disturbances [13]. - Bearish Factors: Weakening demand [13]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - Geopolitical Risks: The US has threatened to strike Iranian military targets, imposed a 25% tariff on Iran's trading partners, and there are uncertainties about potential military actions. Geopolitical factors will continue to affect oil prices, and the actual impact on oil prices depends on whether the geopolitical conflict causes a substantial loss in crude oil supply, which is expected to increase market volatility [14]. - Supply and Demand Forecast: EIA has raised the average price forecast for Brent and WTI crude oils in 2026 and 2027, and expects US crude oil production to decline. OPEC maintains the global crude oil demand growth forecast, and OPEC + crude oil production decreased month - on - month in December. Russia's crude oil production decreased slightly but remained stable [15]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: As of January 16, the weekly asphalt production in China was 488,000 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of asphalt sample enterprises was 27.2% as of January 14, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The refinery operating rate is in a seasonal decline trend, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease [16][23]. - Demand: As of January 16, the weekly asphalt shipment volume in China was 317,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous statistical period but a year - on - year decrease of 100,000 tons. The demand is expected to remain weak. The utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity increased slightly but is expected to remain low in the first quarter [26][29]. - Inventory: As of January 16, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 622,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the previous week. The social inventory was 815,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous week, and it has been accumulating for four consecutive weeks [36][43]. - Spread: As of January 16, the weekly profit from processing diluted asphalt in China was 148 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of January 15, the domestic asphalt basis was 33 yuan/ton. As of January 14, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 51.92, and the asphalt cracking spread decreased significantly month - on - month [52]. 3.5 Future Outlook - The asphalt futures market is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation. If oil prices experience a significant correction, the asphalt price may test the previous low. It is recommended to focus on the range of 3,100 - 3,250 yuan/ton for the BU2603 contract [54].