芳烃市场周报：地缘溢价回吐，不确定性尚存（PX，纯苯，苯乙烯）-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Since the fourth quarter, PX has been supported by improved downstream demand. Although it is currently profitable and the long - term outlook is positive, there is a lack of further upward momentum. In 2026, new PX projects may be implemented after the fourth quarter, and the supply - demand gap is expected to ease before the maintenance season [5]. - Pure Benzene: Affected by the new production capacity, the domestic supply has increased significantly, and the high - import and high - inventory situation is difficult to change. Recently, due to geopolitical uncertainties, the futures and spot prices have risen. In the short term, the market will follow the cost increase and then decline, and it will stabilize at a low level [7]. - Styrene: After the National Day in 2025, styrene was in a wide supply - demand balance. After multiple plant overhauls, the supply - demand gradually shifted to a tight balance. Since December 2025, the futures and spot prices have risen significantly. In the short term, the market is still trading on the strengthening of aromatic hydrocarbon prices and export news. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern has improved significantly, but there may be certain negative factors in the future [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PX Market - Cost: Previously, due to geopolitical factors, the price of PX increased. Recently, with the easing of geopolitical tensions, the price has fallen from a high level. Sinopec raised the January PX listing price to 7,500 yuan/ton, compared with the December settlement price of 7,020 yuan/ton [5]. - Supply: Fuhai Chuang plans to overhaul its 160 - million - ton device for three months in the second quarter and expand its capacity to 200 million tons. Zhonghua Quanzhou's 80 - million - ton PX device has been under maintenance since November 25. This week, PX production was 76.06 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.46%. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 91.95%, a week - on - week increase of 2.83%. The Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 79.84%, a week - on - week increase of 0.66% [5]. - Demand: The downstream PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 77.22%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.72%. This week, the overall domestic PTA capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [5]. Pure Benzene Market - Spot and Futures: The futures price of pure benzene has increased significantly, and the East China price has risen to 5,535 yuan/ton. Since December 2025, the increase has been less than that of other aromatic hydrocarbon varieties. The recent price increase is mainly due to the rise in oil prices and geopolitical news [7]. - Supply and Demand: In December 2025, the national pure benzene production was 1.9228 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.28%. The estimated import volume in December was 470,000 tons, remaining at a high level. Currently, the supply - demand situation has shifted from oversupply to undersupply, and the demand has improved [7]. - Inventory: As of January 12, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in China was 344,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.78%. The pressure of concentrated imports has eased, and the import volume has decreased significantly [7]. - Profit: Due to insufficient terminal demand, styrene, adipic acid, and phenol among the five major downstream products of pure benzene are still at a loss. The profit of pure benzene itself has recovered, and the profits of caprolactam and aniline are acceptable [7]. Styrene Market - Spot and Futures Performance: Recently, the main styrene contract has increased significantly, mainly affected by cost changes and the increase in external market prices. The current mainstream price in East China is 7,235 yuan/ton [8]. - Industrial Chain Profit: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the average profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China was 303 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 121.30%. On January 15, the daily profit was 372 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 13.46% [8]. - Industrial Chain Operation: This week, the total production of styrene plants in China was 355,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08%. The plant capacity utilization rate was 70.86%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06%. Zhonghua Quanzhou and Tianjin Bohua are under maintenance [8]. - Downstream: The consumption of the main downstream products of styrene (EPS, PS, ABS) was 267,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.16%. The overall demand of the three major downstream plants has increased slightly, mainly due to the gradual recovery of EPS plant demand [8]. - Inventory: As of January 12, 2026, the total inventory of the main styrene storage areas in South China was 19,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.77%. The port inventory has decreased this week [8].