浮法玻璃周报：分析师范阿骄-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The spot price of float glass increased slightly this week, with the national average price rising from 1086 yuan/ton on January 8th to 1103 yuan/ton on January 16th, a weekly increase of about 1.6%. The futures price fluctuated, with the main contract closing price dropping from 1143 yuan/ton to 1086 yuan/ton and then rebounding to 1103 yuan/ton on January 16th, with a weekly fluctuation range of 5.8%. The price rebound was mainly driven by speculative demand, cold repair expectations, and coal-linked speculation, rather than an improvement in real terminal demand [3]. - The fundamentals of the float glass market show characteristics of "shrinking supply, inventory reduction, weak demand but active speculation". Although the market anticipates a demand recovery after the Spring Festival, the current year-on-year decline in the terminal real estate completion area by about 18% results in weak demand support and limited upward price space. The futures market is oscillating upwards driven by sentiment and capital, but the fundamental support is still insufficient [3]. - The trading in the glass futures market is active this week, with a total trading volume of 8.016 million lots and an open interest of 1.184 million lots. However, the open interest has not significantly increased, indicating fierce long - short competition and no clear unilateral trend. The spot price in Shahe is lower than the futures price, with the basis in a discount state and active arbitrage activities by cash - and - carry traders [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Overview - The national average price of float glass rose from 1086 yuan/ton on January 8th to 1103 yuan/ton on January 16th, a weekly increase of about 1.6%. The overall production and sales in the industry were acceptable this week, with significant inventory declines in some enterprises and rising prices. There were obvious regional price differences, with prices in East and South China relatively firm and a discount phenomenon in the Shahe area, providing space for cash - and - carry arbitrage. It is expected that the spot price of float glass will be slightly adjusted in the next period, but individual enterprises may flexibly test the market [3]. Supply Side - The supply has been continuously shrinking. Recently, the daily average output of float glass has remained at around 150,000 tons, and the industry's start - up rate and capacity utilization rate have slightly declined month - on - month. There have been few changes in production lines recently. One production line started operation this week, and the weekly output may increase slightly. As of January 15, 2026, the national daily output of float glass was 150,700 tons [3]. Demand Side - In late January, glass processing plants are mainly rushing to complete orders, but their willingness to stock up is low due to factors such as capital. There are regional demand differences. The enthusiasm of middle - stream buyers in Shahe and Hubei continues, while some processing plants in the South are mainly rushing to complete orders. The start - up rate of Chinese LOW - E glass sample enterprises is 73.8%, remaining unchanged month - on - month. As of January 15, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the trend of deep - processing orders in the north - south regions is diverging, with a slight increase in the executable days of southern orders and a decline in orders in the northern and central regions [3]. Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89% [3]. Cost and Profit - This week, the average weekly profit of float glass using coal - gas as fuel was - 73.83 yuan/ton, and the profit using petroleum coke as fuel was - 5.78 yuan/ton. The industry as a whole is still in a loss state, and the cost side has limited support for prices. Soda ash prices are stable, and coal and petroleum coke prices are stable. It is expected that the production costs of enterprises using coal, petroleum coke, and natural gas as fuels will not change much next week [3]. Market Judgment - The closing price of the main contract of float glass futures fluctuated downward from 1143 yuan/ton to 1086 yuan/ton this week and then rebounded to 1103 yuan/ton on January 16th, with a weekly fluctuation range of 5.8%. The price rebound was mainly driven by speculative demand, cold repair expectations, and coal - linked speculation, rather than an improvement in real terminal demand. The market anticipates a demand recovery after the Spring Festival, but the current year - on - year decline in the terminal real estate completion area by about 18% results in weak demand support and limited upward price space. The fundamentals show characteristics of "shrinking supply, inventory reduction, weak demand but active speculation". The futures market is oscillating upwards driven by sentiment and capital, but the fundamental support is still insufficient. The trading in the glass futures market is active this week, with a total trading volume of 8.016 million lots and an open interest of 1.184 million lots. However, the open interest has not significantly increased, indicating fierce long - short competition and no clear unilateral trend. The spot price in Shahe is lower than the futures price, with the basis in a discount state and active arbitrage activities by cash - and - carry traders [3].