螺矿产业链周度报告-20260116

Report Summary 1. Market Focus - The article "Speech at the Central Urban Work Conference" by General Secretary Xi Jinping was published in the "Qiushi" Journal, emphasizing urban renewal [6]. - The central bank introduced a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including interest rate cuts, increasing loan quotas, and adjusting mortgage down - payment ratios [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 18th symposium for manufacturing enterprises, stressing participation in industry rule - making and self - discipline [6]. - In December 2025, the US CPI and core CPI were stable year - on - year, and the PPI increased [6]. 2. Key Data - In early January 2026, key steel enterprises produced 1997 million tons of crude steel, with a daily average of 199.7 million tons, a 21.6% increase. Steel inventories reached 1504 million tons, a 6.4% increase [6]. - In 2025, China's foreign trade reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% increase, with exports at 26.99 trillion yuan, a 6.1% increase [6]. 3. Main Views - Steel prices oscillated at the upper edge of the price range. Macro sentiment was positive, but the impact on the black market was limited. The supply - demand pattern was healthy but lacked upward momentum. The upside space for steel prices was limited [6][58]. - Iron ore prices oscillated at a high level, supported by the macro environment and steel mill restocking. The downward driving force was weak, and it was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [6][60]. Multi - empty Focus 1. Multi - empty Factors Analysis (Rebar) - Bullish factors: Overseas and domestic loose liquidity, expected credit boom, strong steel exports, and cost support [9]. - Bearish factors: Off - season demand, increased steel production, and uncertain impact of export licenses [9]. 2. Multi - empty Factors Analysis (Iron Ore) - Bullish factors: Overseas and domestic loose liquidity, expected credit boom, slow steel production recovery, low steel mill inventories, and restocking demand [10]. - Bearish factors: Off - season steel demand, increased shipments, and high port inventories [10]. Data Analysis 1. Macro - US employment and inflation: In December 2025, the US labor market was in a weak balance, and inflation was mild. The market was worried about inflation in 2026, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was unclear [11][12]. - China's social financing and credit: In December 2025, China's new social financing decreased year - on - year, and the growth rate of the stock slowed. The market expected a credit boom in 2026, but the growth rate might slow in the first half of the year [14][15]. - Policy: The central bank introduced a series of policies to support high - quality economic development, with an emphasis on structural loosening. The direct impact on asset prices was limited, and the key was the implementation [17][18]. 2. Terminal - Automobile industry: In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached a record high. New energy vehicles became the dominant force. In 2026, the total sales were expected to reach 3475 million vehicles, a 1% increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy [21]. - Engineering machinery industry: In 2025, the engineering machinery industry recovered significantly, with excavator sales reaching a five - year high. China's shipbuilding industry maintained growth [25]. - Exports: In 2025, China's exports showed good resilience. Steel exports reached a record high, but there might be a decline in January 2026 [26][27]. 3. (Rebar) Spot - The spot price was stable, and the basis continued to narrow [29]. 4. Profit - The steel mill profitability rate increased by 2.17 percentage points to 39.83%. Steel mill losses decreased [33]. 5. Production - The blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 78.84%, and the electric furnace operating rate remained unchanged. Steel production continued to rise but at a mild pace [34][36]. 6. Apparent Demand - The apparent demand for steel improved but still showed off - season characteristics [38]. 7. Inventory - Rebar inventory decreased slightly, and hot - rolled coil inventory was at a high level. Different regions had different winter - storage policies [42]. 8. (Iron Ore) Spot - The spot price declined, and the basis fluctuated narrowly [43]. 9. Import and Shipment - In December 2025, China's iron ore imports increased. At the beginning of 2026, iron ore shipments decreased [47]. 10. Arrival - From January 5th to 11th, 2026, the arrival of iron ore at Chinese ports increased [48]. 11. Hot Metal Production - The daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.49 million tons [50]. 12. Port Inventory - The port inventory of imported iron ore increased, and the daily dredging volume decreased [54]. 13. Steel Mill Consumption and Inventory - The daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills decreased, and the inventory increased [56]. Market Outlook 1. Steel - Steel prices will continue to operate within a range, with limited upward space. Attention should be paid to the impact of export licenses and inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival [58]. 2. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, with limited downward space [60].