软商品日报：溢价回落，注意支撑-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the cotton market, short - term market drivers are limited. The cotton sector shows a premium regression due to the market decline, but the downside space is relatively limited. Attention should be paid to the support around the 20 - day line [1] - For the sugar market, the basis between sugar futures and spot has basically been repaired. The near - month contracts still face significant supply pressure with weak short - term upward momentum. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets may attract more imports, but the short - term demand boost from the double - festival stocking should be noted, and one may consider buying on dips [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - The Indian Cotton Association (CAI) raised the cotton production forecast for the 2025 - 26 season by 2.5% (750,000 bales, with each bale weighing 170 kg) to 31.7 million bales, based on higher - than - expected yields in Maharashtra and Telangana. CAI expects the cotton surplus in the 2025 - 26 season to be 12.259 million bales, a 56% year - on - year increase due to a record import of 5 million bales this year [1] - Domestic new cotton processing is nearly complete. The sales progress of lint cotton is faster than last year, and the goods are gradually transferred to large traders. The spot basis is firm. The downstream cotton yarn market has little change, with varieties showing differentiation. Spinning mills continue to buy as they use [1] Sugar - As of January 15, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season in India, 519 sugar mills have started production. The cumulative crushed sugarcane is 176.374 million tons, an 18.85% increase (27.98 million tons more) compared to the same period last year. The sugar output has reached 15.885 million tons, a 21.63% increase (2.825 million tons more) compared to the same period last year. The sugar - making rate has increased to 9.01%, higher than 8.80% in the same period last year [2] - The estimated cost of processed Brazilian sugar within the quota after tax is 3,933 yuan/ton, and the estimated cost of processed Brazilian sugar outside the quota after tax is 4,993 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processed Brazilian sugar within the quota after tax compared to the Rizhao white sugar spot price is 1,587 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of processed Brazilian sugar outside the quota after tax is 527 yuan/ton [2]