甲醇日报：静待库存拐点-20260116

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol port inventory decreased significantly this week, and there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities after the price decline. Currently, methanol is in a low - valuation state, and although the overall rebound space is limited by weak downstream demand, it is prone to a low - level rebound. Also, close attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in Iran [1][3] 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - As of January 14, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4403 million tons, a decrease of 96,900 tons from the previous period. The inventory in the East China region decreased by 84,400 tons, and that in the South China region decreased by 12,500 tons. The significant reduction in methanol port inventory this week is mainly due to the small total unloading volume. The visible unloading of foreign vessels within the cycle was 96,100 tons, and the non - visible unloading was 125,000 tons. The提货 situation in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu was okay, while the提货 performance in other social warehouses in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was average. Although there were new terminal shutdowns in Zhejiang, the inventory decreased significantly due to the low unloading volume. The inventory in South China ports continued to decline. In the Guangdong region, there were small - scale imports and domestic arrivals during the week, the提货 volume in the mainstream storage areas was stable, and the inventory decreased. In the Fujian region, the supply was supplemented by imports and domestic trade, and the inventory fluctuated little under the on - demand consumption of downstream enterprises [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The People's Bank of China will take promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy, and flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity. Starting from January 19, 2026, the central bank will lower the rediscount rate and the interest rate of relending by 0.25 percentage points [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures price has slightly declined, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average at the daily - line level. January is expected to be a period of slowdown in imports, and there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. Buying opportunities after the price decline can be appropriately considered. Currently, methanol is in a low - valuation state. The overall rebound space is restricted by weak downstream demand, but low - level rebound is likely. Recently, special attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in Iran [3]