Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints Polyester Sector - In the short - term, the supply - demand outlook for the polyester sector has worsened. PX and PTA should be treated with an adjustment mindset, and attention should be paid to the risk of crude oil price fluctuations due to unstable geopolitical situations. The sector lacks fundamental support and will follow the general trend of commodities, fluctuating in a low - level range. - In the long - term, the polyester sector will show a differentiated trend. With supply expected to remain relatively tight, the operating centers of PX and PTA will tend to move up. Due to increasing supply pressure, ethylene glycol will perform relatively weakly. [30] Methanol - In the short - term, affected by the geopolitical situation in Iran, the price fluctuations of methanol have increased, maintaining a wide - range oscillation pattern. Methanol is in a deep game between strong expectations and weak reality, with limited upward space and potential for a slight adjustment. - In the long - term, the import volume of methanol is expected to decrease in February, but demand recovery is weak. Methanol will likely continue to oscillate widely until there is obvious recovery momentum in demand. [58] Plastic - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation of plastic has marginally improved this week, and the price has continued to rebound due to strong macro - sentiment. However, as geopolitical concerns ease, the cost - side support weakens, and plastic may return to fundamental operation, with a possible weak and oscillatory trend. - In the long - term, the supply pressure of plastic is unlikely to decrease due to new capacity releases, and overall demand is in the off - season. Plastic is expected to continue its weak trend. [59] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Crude Oil Important Information - Iran's short - term possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz has significantly decreased, and the risk premium has been quickly squeezed out. The US has imposed sanctions on multiple Iranian individuals, entities, and foreign companies associated with Iran. The US has completed the first - batch sale of Venezuelan crude oil as part of a $2 billion deal, and plans to continue selling Venezuelan crude oil indefinitely. [3] - The EIA has slightly revised up its future oil - price forecast, expecting the average price of WTI crude oil in 2026 to reach $52.21 per barrel, and maintaining the 2027 forecast at $50.36. US crude - oil production is expected to decline from a peak of 13.61 million barrels per day in 2025 to 13.59 million barrels per day in 2026 and 13.25 million barrels per day in 2027. The rebound in Venezuelan crude - oil production may exacerbate market oversupply. [4] - As of the week ending January 9, 2026, US commercial crude - oil inventories increased by 3.39 million barrels to 422.447 million barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 95.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous week, while gasoline inventories surged by 8.977 million barrels to 251.013 million barrels. [4] Polyester Sector Spot and Futures Price Trends - Futures prices: WTI crude oil continuous increased by 0.03%, PX603 decreased by 0.53%, TA605 decreased by 0.75%, EG605 decreased by 0.75%, PF602 decreased by 1.21%, and PR603 decreased by 0.03%. - Spot prices: Naphtha increased by 2.87%, PX CFR: Taiwan decreased by 0.68%, PTA spot benchmark price decreased by 0.49%, ethylene glycol East China mainstream price decreased by 0.57%, polyester staple fiber East China mainstream price decreased by 0.84%, and polyester bottle - chip East China mainstream price increased by 0.50%. - Basis: PX basis decreased by 10.64 yuan/ton, PTA basis increased by 13 yuan/ton, ethylene glycol basis increased by 8 yuan/ton, short - fiber basis increased by 23 yuan/ton, and polyester bottle - chip basis increased by 32 yuan/ton. - Polyester filament prices: POY150D/48F increased by 2.29%, FDY150D/96F increased by 1.47%, and DTY150D/48F increased by 1.29%. [6] Supply and Demand Analysis of Polyester Sector PX - Last week, the restart of Fujia Dahua's 1 - million - ton PX plant increased supply. As of January 15, the domestic weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 91.95%, up 2.83 percentage points, and the PX output was 760,600 tons, up 1.46%. - South Korea's GSCX Line 3's 550,000 - ton PX plant has restarted, and Asia's PX load has slightly rebounded. As of January 15, Asia's weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 79.84%, up 0.66%. - There are no planned plant changes next week, and domestic PX supply is expected to remain stable. [12] PTA - During the week, Yisheng New Materials shut down for maintenance, and Xin Fengming restarted. As of January 15, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 77.22%, down 0.19 percentage points, and the weekly output was 1.4504 million tons, down 1,800 tons. - This week, the pace of PTA social inventory reduction has slowed. As of January 15, PTA in - plant inventory days were 3.62 days (+0.02 days), polyester factory PTA inventory was 7.5 days (+0 days), and PTA social inventory was about 2.8674 million tons (-16,800 tons). - There are maintenance plans for plants in South China next week, and domestic supply is expected to decline slightly. [15][16] Ethylene Glycol - This week, Yongcheng Yongjin restarted, and some plants increased their loads, while Sinopec Sichuan Petrochemical had a short - term shutdown, and some plants decreased their loads. As of January 15, the domestic weekly average ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 62.69% (-0.37 percentage points), with the integrated plant capacity utilization rate at 62.51% (-1.14 percentage points) and the coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate at 62.98% (+0.89 percentage points); the weekly output was 395,600 tons (-2,300 tons). Sinopec Sichuan Petrochemical will undergo maintenance next week, and domestic supply will decrease. - This week, port inventories increased. As of January 15, the total inventory at East China ports was 728,000 tons, down 9,000 tons from Monday and up 38,000 tons from last Thursday. Although the arrival of imported goods will decrease next week, considering the decline in shipments, port inventories are expected to increase slightly. [17] Polyester End - The weekly capacity utilization rate of the polyester end decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 86.7%. [18] Polyester Inventory - This week, the inventory of short - fiber and long - fiber polyester decreased slightly. [22] Terminal - As of January 15, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 54.94% (-2.95 percentage points), the order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 7.73 days (-0.95 days), and the坯布 inventory days were 28.27 days (+0.7 days). [27] Methanol and Polyolefin Spot and Futures Price Trends - Futures: MA2605 decreased by 1.50%, MA basis increased by 54.84%, L2605 increased by 0.31%, and L basis increased by 158.51%. - Methanol prices: Methanol (Taicang) increased by 0.40%, and methanol CFR increased by 0.65%. - Plastic prices: LLDPE increased by 2.58%, HDPE increased by 2.88%, and LDPE increased by 2.22%. [33] Supply and Demand Analysis of Methanol Supply Side - As of January 15, the domestic methanol operating rate was 91.11%, down 0.31 percentage points, and the output was 2.0353 million tons, down 6,990 tons (0.34%) from the previous period. - This week, Xinxiang Zhongxin's plant was under maintenance, with a loss of 300,000 tons/year of production capacity, and Inner Mongolia Jiuding's plant resumed operation, with a recovery of 100,000 tons/year of production capacity. - There are still some maintenance plans next week, and the operating rate is expected to continue to decline slightly. [40] Demand Side - As of January 15, the MTO operating rate decreased by 2.29 percentage points to 85.77%. Ningbo Fude continued to be shut down, and Zhejiang Xingxing shut down on January 12 due to economic pressure. Sierbang has a maintenance plan in February, and the support for coastal olefins is weakening. Other traditional downstream sectors are in the off - season, and although there is a slight increase in plant restarts, there is no obvious positive news. Olefins may continue to weaken in the next period. [43] Inventory - As of January 14, port inventories were 1.4353 million tons, down 101,900 tons (6.63%) from the previous period, and inland inventories were 450,900 tons, up 3,270 tons (0.73%). - The overall unloading volume this period was not large, and port inventories decreased. Although coastal olefins in Zhejiang weakened due to plant shutdowns, inventories also decreased significantly due to less unloading. However, this inventory reduction was mainly driven by unloading volume, and there was no obvious positive news on the demand side. There is still a large risk of inventory accumulation in the next period, and the turning point for effective inventory reduction has not yet arrived. Inland inventories are higher than in previous years due to high operating pressure and seasonal weakening of demand, and there is still pressure to reduce inventories. [46] Supply and Demand Analysis of Plastic Supply Side - As of January 15, the domestic plastic operating rate was 81.6%, down 2.07 percentage points, and the output was 669,800 tons, down 17,000 tons (2.47%) from the previous period. - This week, plants such as Guangdong Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical were under maintenance, with a total loss of about 480,000 tons/year of production capacity, and plants such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical resumed operation, with a total recovery of about 280,000 tons/year of production capacity. - Next week, there are many plants resuming operation, with a total recovery of about 1.5 million tons/year of production capacity, and the operating rate is expected to increase. [49] Demand Side - As of January 15, the downstream plastic operating rate was 40.93%, down 0.28 percentage points. The agricultural film sector continued to weaken seasonally, with the operating rate continuing to decline (-0.91%), and the packaging film sector was slightly boosted by post - holiday replenishment demand, but order follow - up was weakening. [54] Inventory - As of January 13, social inventories were 484,300 tons, down 500 tons (0.1%) from the previous period, and two - oil enterprise inventories were 302,000 tons, down 23,000 tons (7.08%). - This period, the macro - news was positive, market sentiment was strong, and prices continued to rise. However, after the downstream had completed phased inventory replenishment, the trading atmosphere was stalemate. Two - oil enterprises successfully reduced inventories, but overall inventories fluctuated little. [57]
能化板块周度报告-20260116
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo·2026-01-16 11:26