国投期货农产品日报-20260116

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★★★ [1] - Zonglvyou: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ☆☆☆ [1] - Yumi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Shengzhu: ★★★ [1] - Jidan: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall agricultural product market shows different trends, with some products in a state of shock adjustment, while others are affected by factors such as policies, weather, and supply - demand relationships [2][3][5] - Different investment strategies are proposed for various agricultural products based on their current situations and future trends [2][5][8] Summary by Related Categories Soybean (Douyi) - Domestic soybeans are in a state of shock adjustment with a slowdown in the decline. The sales volume and price of Jilin trade - grain soybeans are good. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, but the demand is relatively cautious after price increases. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and the spot market [2] Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures continue to decline. Brazil's 2026 soybean production is expected to increase by 2.5% compared to 2025. The US government is weighing biofuel quotas. South American bumper harvest expectations have returned as the main trading logic, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [2] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The US government's upcoming announcement of biofuel blending obligations has boosted US soybean oil and domestic soybean oil, with palm oil following. The upper limit of soybean and palm oil prices is constrained by the expansion of global oil supplies, while the lower limit is supported by the expansion of global biodiesel demand. Overall, they are in a range - bound state, and attention should be paid to the risk of boundary failure [3] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures show a pattern of strong oil and weak meal. Rapeseed oil prices are affected by US biofuel policy expectations. The rapeseed market faces a contradiction between short - term supply shortage and medium - term import policy uncertainties. It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see attitude [5] Corn - Dalian corn futures opened high and closed low, while the national corn spot price was stable with a slight increase. CNGC's increased procurement has boosted market confidence. Short - term futures will be mainly in a wide - range shock, and seasonal risks should be noted later [6] Live Pigs - Near - month live pig contracts are in shock, while far - month contracts are significantly weaker. The spot market is stronger in the north and weaker in the south, with a slight overall increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, the slaughter rhythm may accelerate, and pig prices are expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [7] Eggs - The egg futures market shows a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term. The spot price has risen significantly. Low chicken - chick replenishment in the past few months will lead to a low number of newly - laid hens in the first half of 2026. With the supply shrinking and demand rising, it is recommended to adopt a long - low - allocation strategy or a long - near - short - far strategy for the first - half - year contracts in 2026 [8]