黑色系周度报告-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints For Steel and Iron Ore - In the medium - to - long - term, the fundamentals of steel have slightly improved, but due to cold weather, the demand in the off - season will deepen. The market is hesitant, and steel mills' profitability is low, so there is still upward pressure. For iron ore, overseas shipments are falling, but previous shipments are arriving at ports, resulting in a loose supply situation, high port inventories, and a slight decline in daily hot metal production. It is recommended to operate with caution [69]. - In the short - term, rebar and iron ore will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment situation [70]. For Glass and Soda Ash - In the medium - to - long - term, the number of glass production lines remains stable, weekly production decreases, supply is at a low level, and inventory pressure is relieved but still high year - on - year. The real - estate off - season continues, and cost support weakens, so the glass fundamentals are under pressure. For soda ash, industry maintenance is mostly over, capacity utilization has significantly increased, overall inventory is high, downstream glass production has decreased, and weak terminal demand persists [73]. - In the short - term, glass and soda ash will maintain a weak operation, waiting for demand guidance [74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black - series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Contract | 2026/1/9 Closing Price | 2026/1/16 Closing Price | Change | Percentage Change (%) | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | RB2605 | 3144 | 3163 | 19 | 1 | 3300 | 137 | | Hot - rolled coil | HC2605 | 3294 | 3315 | 21 | 1 | 3310 | - 5 | | Iron ore | I2605 | 815 | 812 | - 3 | - 0 | 832 | 20 | | Coke | J2605 | 1748 | 1717 | - 31 | - 2 | 1570 | - 147 | | Coking coal | JM2605 | 1196 | 1171 | - 25 | - 2 | 1370 | 199 | | Glass | FG605 | 1144 | 1103 | - 41 | - 4 | 1170 | 67 | | Soda ash | SA605 | 1228 | 1192 | - 36 | - 3 | 1234 | 42 | [3] Rebar Supply Side - On January 16, the blast - furnace operating rate was 78.84%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons; the rebar output was 1.903 million tons, a decrease of 7400 tons [13]. Demand Side - In the week of January 16, the apparent consumption of rebar was 1.9034 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,800 tons. As of January 15, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 86,175 tons [19]. Inventory - In the week of January 16, the social inventory of rebar was 2.9541 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 52,300 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.4266 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 52,700 tons [24]. Iron Ore Supply Side - In the week of January 9, the global iron - ore shipment volume was 3.1809 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 3.015 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 190,300 tons [29]. Inventory - In the week of January 16, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 17.2887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 244,260 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 9.26222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 272,630 tons [34]. Demand Side - In the week of January 16, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 335,020 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1940 tons. As of January 15, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 98,120 tons [39]. Float Glass Supply Side - In the week of January 16, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 212, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1,052,315 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6930 tons. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate was 75.34%, and the operating rate was 71.38% [44]. Inventory - In the week of January 16, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 53.013 million weight - boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million weight - boxes; the available days of in - plant inventory were 23 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 days [49]. Demand Side - In the week of January 16, the number of days of deep - processing orders from downstream glass manufacturers was 9.3 days [53]. Soda Ash Supply Side - In the week of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 86.82%, an increase of 2.43 percentage points compared with last week; the output was 775,300 tons, an increase of 21,700 tons compared with last week [56]. In - plant Inventory - As of January 16, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.575 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2300 tons [61]. Production and Sales Rate - As of January 16, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 99.7%, a week - on - week increase of 21.52 percentage points [65].