2026年货币流动性展望：2026财年全球宽财政力度有多大？

Fiscal Overview - In FY 2026, the weighted average fiscal expenditure of major global economies is projected to increase from 33.2% of GDP in FY 2025 to 33.5%[6] - The deficit rate is expected to rise from 5.7% in FY 2025 to 6.0% in FY 2026, indicating a further expansion of fiscal policies[6] Economic Differentiation - Countries like China, the US, Eurozone, Japan, and South Korea will see an increase in fiscal expenditure as a percentage of GDP, while the UK, Canada, Australia, and Russia will experience a decrease[10] - The US will implement significant tax cuts under the "Great American Act," reducing fiscal revenue as a percentage of GDP, while other economies are expected to enhance fiscal revenue efforts[11] Investment Focus - Most economies are prioritizing fiscal investment in military and emerging industries, with the US increasing military and homeland security spending in FY 2026[12] - The Eurozone will boost defense spending, while Japan will introduce new defense-related taxes to support its military budget[12] Country-Specific Insights - United States: Fiscal expenditure is projected to rise from 22.8% of GDP in FY 2025 to 23.3% in FY 2026, despite tax cuts[23] - Eurozone: Fiscal expenditure is expected to increase from 51.5% of GDP in FY 2025 to 51.7% in FY 2026[2] - Japan: The fiscal expenditure is anticipated to rise from 19.9% of GDP in FY 2025 to a historical high in FY 2026[2] - South Korea: Fiscal expenditure will increase from 25.5% of GDP in FY 2025 to 26.6% in FY 2026, with a focus on emerging industries and national security[2] - Canada: Fiscal expenditure is projected to decrease from 18.4% of GDP in FY 2025 to 18.0% in FY 2026, while aiming to increase capital investment[2]