油粕日报：2026 美国生物燃料配额即将落地-20260116

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while the far - month contracts may remain weak due to the bearish effect of the USDA report. If the South American harvest progresses well, there is a possibility of further decline [1]. - For the oil sector, there is a possibility of negative factors being exhausted. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - CONAB predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record 176.124 million tons, 1.08 million tons lower than last month's forecast but 2.7% higher than the previous year. Export volume is expected to reach 111.79 million tons, slightly lower than last month's forecast. Imports are expected to drop to 500,000 tons, the same as last month's forecast and lower than the 2024/25 season. Ending stocks are adjusted down to 11.3 million tons [1]. - On January 15, US private exporters reported sales of 204,000 tons of US soybeans to China and 545,000 tons to unknown destinations, mostly for delivery in the 2025/26 season [1]. - The market is unclear about the later state - reserve release schedule. Recent auctions of imported soybeans all had premium transactions, indicating a supply gap and strong short - term demand [1]. Oils - The Trump administration plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota by early March, keeping it close to the initial proposal and abandoning the plan to penalize renewable fuel and raw material imports. The US EPA is considering a 2026 biodiesel production of 5.2 to 5.6 billion gallons [2]. - Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand said that negotiations on reducing Canadian canola tariffs are ongoing and productive [2]. - The uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 policy caused palm oil prices to decline slightly. The rapeseed oil market is waiting for the outcome of China - Canada negotiations on rapeseed imports. The US biofuel policy is becoming clearer, providing psychological support for US fuel merchants [2].