通货花生价格回落，花生盘面偏弱震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall peanut market shows a weak trend, with the spot price of peanuts falling and the futures market in a weak shock. The recommended strategies are to sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option, short - sell 03 peanuts on rallies, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for the spread between different contract months [5][6]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Option Strategy: Sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [5]. - Trading Logic: Peanut trading volume has increased. Henan's general - grade peanut prices are stable, Shandong's are stable, and Northeast's continue to decline. Imported peanut prices are stable, but the import volume has decreased significantly. The oil mill's operating rate has risen, the purchase price has slightly increased, and the profit from peanut oil pressing has declined. Downstream consumption remains weak, and the oil mill's peanut and peanut oil inventories have increased. The market is trading on the decline of peanut spot prices, and the willingness to take delivery of 03 peanut warehouse receipts is weak [6]. - Strategy: Short - sell 03 peanuts on rallies [6]. - Spread Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Peanut Price: Domestic peanuts - Henan's prices are stable, and Northeast's are falling. Shandong's Linyi large peanuts are 3.4 yuan per catty, Henan's Zhengyang new - season peanuts are 3.8 yuan per catty, and Liaoning's Changtu and Jilin's Fuyu Baisha peanuts are 4.55 yuan per catty, down 0.05 yuan per catty from last week. Oil mill's purchase price for oil - used peanuts is stable at 6900 - 7900 yuan per ton. Imported peanuts - Sudan's new rice is 8600 yuan per ton, and India's 50/60 is reported at 8000 yuan per ton [11]. - Domestic Demand: The oil mill's operating rate has risen. As of January 15, the weekly operating rate of peanut oil mills is 44.77%, a 2.9% increase from last week. The oil mill's peanut inventory has increased, with this week's arrival volume at 94,300 tons, an increase of 27,800 tons from last week, and the peanut inventory at 157,800 tons, an increase of 28,500 tons. The peanut oil inventory is 48,100 tons, an increase of 1200 tons [15]. - Pressing Profit: The oil mill's purchase price for peanuts has slightly increased, peanut meal prices are stable, and peanut oil prices are stable. The oil mill's pressing profit is 190 yuan per ton, a decrease of 39 yuan per ton from last week. The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,400 yuan per ton, and the price of small - squeezed fragrant oil is 16,300 yuan per ton. Peanut meal prices are stable at 3100 yuan per ton [19]. - Basis and Spread: The spread between 05 and 10 peanuts is weak and stable at around - 350 yuan. The basis has declined. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [26]. - Peanut Import: In November, the import volume of peanut kernels was 29,000 tons, and from January to November, the cumulative import volume was 2.27 million tons, a 67% decrease compared to the same period last year. The export volume of peanut kernels in November was 25,000 tons, and from January to November, the cumulative export volume was 154,000 tons, a 22% increase compared to the same period last year. The import volume of peanut oil in November was 31,000 tons, and from January to November, the cumulative import volume was 365,000 tons, a 57% increase compared to last year [30]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking The report contains a large number of data charts, including the price of Shandong's general - grade peanut kernels, the price of oil mill's purchased peanut kernels, the basis between Shandong's spot and continuous contracts, the operating rate of peanut oil mills, the inventory and pressing volume of peanut kernels in peanut oil mills, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the spread between peanut meal and soybean meal, the price of Shandong's peanut oil, the basis between Shandong's peanuts and continuous contracts, the spread between different peanut contract months, the import and export volume of peanut kernels and peanut oil, etc., but no specific data summaries are provided in the text.