铝产业链周度报告-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of Shanghai aluminum may experience short - term high - level fluctuations and adjustments [53]. - The price of aluminum alloy may follow the price of electrolytic aluminum and undergo high - level shock adjustments [51]. - The alumina market is expected to continue to have an oversupply situation [21]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Report Summary - The report analyzes the aluminum industry from multiple aspects, including macroeconomic data, supply and demand of raw materials, production and sales of products, and inventory changes. It also provides a forecast for the future price trend of aluminum [53][51]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - Bullish Factors: The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to be accumulated, but the production operation can be maintained, and the end - user side hopes to maintain resilience [7]. - Bearish Factors: The US dollar index is high, and the sentiment of the non - ferrous metal market has turned weak with macro data showing a rebound [7]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Macroeconomic Data: In the US in December 2025, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. The CPI rose by 2.7% year - on - year. In China in December 2025, the CPI rose by 0.8% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year with the decline narrowing [9][14]. - Raw Material Supply: From January to November 2025, China's bauxite cumulative production reached 55.2135 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. In November, imports reached 15.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.3%. In 2025, the new domestic alumina production capacity was 9.8 million tons, and it is expected to reach 8.6 million tons in 2026 [16][19][22]. - Production and Sales of Products: In December 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.9% year - on - year and 4.0% month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio dropped by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month. The domestic downstream aluminum processing enterprises' average opening rate increased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 60.2%. In December 2025, the domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 640,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41,800 tons [27][29][43]. - Inventory Situation: The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly to 490,000 tons. The SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 10.79% to 143,828 tons in the week of January 9. As of January 15, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 749,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons compared to Monday. As of January 16, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 69,300 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons compared to last week, and the in - plant inventory was 60,200 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared to last week [36][39][48]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The price of Shanghai aluminum may experience short - term high - level fluctuations and adjustments. The price of aluminum alloy may follow the price of electrolytic aluminum and undergo high - level shock adjustments [53][51].