鸡蛋周报：春节备货临近，蛋价有所回升-20260116

Report Title - Egg Weekly Report: As Spring Festival Stockpiling Approaches, Egg Prices Rise [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The egg market has seen price increases driven by Spring Festival stockpiling demand, with improved market sentiment and increased shipments in the production areas. However, the downstream demand for chicken products remains weak, and the overall procurement enthusiasm of slaughter enterprises is limited. The egg production capacity is expected to decline in the future, and the egg price increase is mainly supported by the rise in spot prices. [5][10][18] Summary by Directory Part 1: Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.2 yuan per catty, up 0.3 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.4 yuan per catty, also up 0.3 yuan per catty from last Friday. The egg market rose driven by Spring Festival stockpiling. The inventory in each link decreased significantly, and the egg price increased significantly. The downstream demand was weak, and the procurement enthusiasm of slaughter enterprises was limited. [5] 2. Supply Analysis - The national egg production area shipments increased significantly this week, mainly due to the concentrated release of pre - Spring Festival stockpiling demand and the active inventory increase in the terminal market. On January 8th, the national main production area egg - laying hen culling volume was 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 485 days, 1 day more than the previous week. In December, the national laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, 80 million less than the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, lower than expected. The monthly hatching volume of egg - laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. [10] 3. Cost Analysis - As of January 15th, the corn price was around 2363 yuan per ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3184 yuan per ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2609 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 2.87 yuan per catty of eggs. The feed price rose slightly this week, and the cost per catty of eggs remained stable. The average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.13 yuan per catty, up 0.26 yuan from the previous week. On January 9th, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was - 14.14 yuan per feather, down 0.41 yuan per catty from the previous week. [13] 4. Demand Analysis - At the beginning of the week, the Spring Festival stockpiling demand was released, and the sales volume in the sales areas increased. In the middle and late weeks, the sales growth slowed down. As of January 8th, the egg sales volume in national representative sales areas was 7391 tons, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week, at a historical low. The egg production and circulation inventories decreased significantly and were at a low level. As of January 15th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, and in the circulation link was 1.05 days, both slightly decreasing. The vegetable price index and pork price slightly rebounded. [16] 5. Trading Strategies - Option: It is recommended to wait and see. For trading logic, considering the approaching Spring Festival, the spot price has risen significantly, which supports the futures market. The egg production capacity is decreasing, and it is expected to continue to decline in the future. It is recommended to build long positions in the far - month May contract on dips, and wait and see for arbitrage. [17][18] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Egg - Laying Hen Farming Situation - Not detailed in the provided content 2. Spread and Basis - Graphs show the 1 - month basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - month basis, 5 - 9 spread, 9 - month basis, and 9 - 1 spread from 2018 - 2025, but specific data analysis is not provided. [25][26][29]