苹果周报：临近春节备货，苹果出库加快-20260116

Report Title and Information - Report Title: Apple Weekly: Approaching Spring Festival Stockpiling, Apple Outbound Speeds Up [1] - Research Institution: Galaxy Futures Co., Ltd. - Researcher: Liu Qiannan - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 - Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0014425 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core View - This season's apple warehouse receipts have high costs due to a low premium fruit rate, strongly supporting apple futures prices. Although the latest cold - storage apple outbound volume on January 2 was lower year - on - year, the peak sales season is postponed because the 2026 Spring Festival is three weeks later than in 2025. With low cold - storage apple inventory, if normal outbound volume is maintained, future apple supply will be tight. It is recommended to focus on cold - storage apple outbound. If apple demand remains normal, the May contract price is likely to rise [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - This week, late Fuji apple producing areas started Spring Festival stockpiling with a weak atmosphere. Traders mainly packed their own inventory, and farmers' fruit transactions were concentrated in low - priced goods. In the sales area, transit warehouses were congested, with few customers and slow overall sales. - In Shandong, overall outbound slightly accelerated but remained weak. In some areas, there was some demand for low - grade fruit, and high - grade fruit had few transactions. In Shaanxi, de - stocking accelerated slightly, with more in - query customers in Yan'an and a weak market in Weinan and Xianyang [6]. 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - As of January 15, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 49.78%, 3.55 percentage points lower than the same period last year. This week, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.35 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 10.90%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 51.37%, down 1.17 percentage points this week. In Shaanxi, it was 47.69%, down 1.49 percentage points. In Gansu, it was 49.85%, down 2.02 percentage points in two weeks. Other regions also had their own sales situations. As of January 14, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 704.66 tons, a decrease of 16.25 tons from last week, with an accelerated but still lower - than - last - year de - stocking speed [9]. 3.1.3 Demand Analysis - At the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of morning arrival vehicles increased slightly. The market consumption was average, with downstream purchasing enthusiasm decreasing, transit warehouse congestion increasing, and mainly high - quality Gansu apples selling well. The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on December 18 was 7.66 yuan/kg, slightly up from last Friday and at a high level in recent years. The profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2025 - 2026 production season is suspended from statistics [12]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Trading Logic: High - cost warehouse receipts support futures prices. Although the current outbound volume is lower year - on - year, the peak sales season is postponed. With low inventory, normal outbound volume may lead to supply shortages later. - Unilateral: Go long on the May contract on dips and short the October contract on rallies. - Arbitrage: Go long on the May contract and short the October contract. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [14]. 3.2 Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Apple Supply - Demand Situation No specific text analysis provided, only data charts including apple export, planting area, consumption, and production [18]. 3.2.2 Inventory and Outbound (Mysteel) No specific text analysis provided, only data charts showing national and regional cold - storage inventory, outbound volume trends [21]. 3.2.3 Spread and Basis No specific text analysis provided, only data charts of basis and spreads between different contracts [26].