高价抵制，尿素高位回落为主

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that due to high - price resistance, urea would fluctuate. This week's view is that with low - price procurement, urea will continue the fluctuating pattern, and external disturbances should be noted. The mainstream ex - factory prices in major regions have remained stable overall since the weekend, with low market sentiment, weak trading, and sporadic orders received by manufacturers. In Shandong, Henan, and delivery areas, ex - factory prices are expected to remain firm. The daily output of domestic urea has rebounded to around 200,000 tons. The Indian tender result is CFR $420 per ton, with a counter - offer of around 960,000 tons, and the impact on the domestic market is limited. The compound fertilizer开工率 in the Central and Northeast regions has increased, and raw material inventory is being replenished at low prices. The procurement intensity of seasonal storage enterprises will gradually slow down. As the ex - factory price rises, downstream resistance emerges, and the ex - factory price will mainly decline. The trading strategy is to go short unilaterally without chasing the short, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Data Changes - Supply: In the 2nd week of 2026 (January 8 - 14), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 94.60%, a 1.54% increase from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 51.35%, a 3.79% increase. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate was 97.90%, a 1.11% decrease [5] - Demand: In the 3rd week of 2026 (January 9 - 15), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.18%, a 7.83 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.08%, a 2.91 - percentage - point increase. As of January 16, 2026, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,380 tons, a 12.66% decrease from the previous week. The arrival volume of urea in the Northeast this week was 95,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous week. As of January 14, 2026, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.06 days, a 5.46% decrease from the previous period [5] - Inventory: On January 14, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 986,100 tons, a 3.53% decrease from the previous week. As of January 15, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 134,000 tons, a 4.29% decrease from the previous week [5] - Valuation: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal rebounded, the price of Yulin pulverized coal was stable, the spot price of urea increased, and the production profit of urea expanded. The fixed - bed production profit was 70 yuan per ton, the water - coal - slurry production profit was 150 yuan per ton, and the entrained - flow bed production profit was 390 yuan per ton. The futures rebounded, the basis was around - 80 yuan per ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan per ton [5]