棉系周报：基本面有所支撑，棉价震荡为主-20260116

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Fundamental Support, Cotton Prices to Fluctuate Mainly [1] Report's Core View - The fundamentals of the cotton market are relatively strong, but recent performance of commodities has been mediocre. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate around current levels in the short term. The sales progress of cotton remains rapid, and downstream stocking willingness has increased. Supported by market bullish factors, the cotton fundamentals are still strong. Affected by macro - sentiment, cotton prices have significantly corrected recently, and are expected to fluctuate slightly in a strong range in the short term [29] Group 1: International Market Analysis Market Trend - The US cotton market has few fundamental contradictions, and its price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [8] Growth Situation - As of the week ending January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.7756 million tons, accounting for 89.2% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 9% slower than the same period last year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 89.37%, down 9% year - on - year; the inspection progress of Pima cotton was 88.6%, 20% slower year - on - year. The weekly deliverable ratio was 76.8%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.3%, 1.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year [8] Sales Situation - As of the week ending January 8, 2026, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 77,000 tons, a weekly increase of 247% and an 89% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks. Among them, Vietnam signed 28,900 tons and China signed 13,000 tons. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 2,300 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 35,400 tons, a weekly increase of 1% and an 8% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks [8] CFTC Data - As of January 6, 2026, the net long - position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 15.14% (a week - on - week increase of 0.99 percentage points, and an increase of 0.41 percentage points last week) [8] Other Countries' Situations - As of January 10, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 31.9% complete, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, 1.6 percentage points slower than the same period last year, and 3.6 percentage points slower than the average of the past three years. The India Cotton Association (CAI) increased its estimated production by 130,000 tons, domestic demand by 170,000 tons, and decreased exports by 50,000 tons in its December 31, 2025 report, resulting in a 10,000 - ton increase in ending stocks [8] Global Situation - According to the latest USDA January global cotton production and sales forecast, there were few changes. In December, the global total cotton production was 26 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 80,000 tons; the total consumption increased by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons; the ending stocks decreased by 320,000 tons to 16.22 million tons [8] Group 2: Domestic Market Analysis Market Trend - The fundamentals of the domestic cotton market are still strong, but due to the general performance of commodities recently, cotton prices are expected to fluctuate around current levels in the short term [29] Supply Side - As of the week ending January 15, the national ginning mill operating rate continued to decline to 36.71%, a month - on - month decline of 11.59%. As of January 14, 2026, the cumulative public inspection was 30,477,135 bales, totaling 6,879,745 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.03%. The cumulative public inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 6,649,109 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.36%. In December, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.6598 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 99,600 tons [29] Demand Side - As of January 9, the cumulative sales volume of lint cotton was 4.093 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years, an increase of 2.318 million tons compared to the average of the past four years. As of January 15, the operating load of spinning mills in mainstream areas was 64.6%, a 0.15% decrease from the previous week. As of the week ending January 8, the inventory days of cotton in spinning mills in mainstream areas was 24.59 days [29] Group 3: Futures and Option Trading Strategies Futures - Unilateral trading: It is expected that the US cotton price will likely fluctuate within a range in the short term, while the fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton are still strong. Consider building long positions on dips. Arbitrage trading: Hold off [43] Options - Hold off [42] Group 4: Weekly Data Tracking Price Difference - The report presents data and trends of the price difference between domestic and international cotton, as well as the price difference trend between September and January contracts [46][47] Mid - stream Situation - It shows the operating load of pure - cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, and the inventory days of yarn and grey fabric [50] Cotton Inventory - It includes the commercial inventory of cotton, the industrial inventory of cotton in spinning mills, and the reserve inventory [52] Basis - It shows the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, as well as the basis of US seven - major - market upland cotton and the spot - futures basis of cotton yarn C32S [55]