国信期货玉米周报：补库推动，玉米近强远弱-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Past week, corn spot prices fluctuated strongly due to mid - downstream restocking and farmers' reluctance to sell; futures prices rose, with the near - month C03 contract rising significantly, boosted by spot price increases and a high discount on the futures. The C3 - C5 spread strengthened significantly. - New - crop corn sales progress was relatively fast, but the pace has slowed in recent weeks, indicating increased reluctance to sell among farmers. - The theoretical profit of imported corn is good, but future arrivals from major producing countries are still limited. - Currently, the inventory of pigs and poultry is high, with strong rigid demand for feed. However, due to poor overall profits and the expectation of capacity reduction, feed enterprises have limited motivation to significantly increase raw material inventory. The increase in feed enterprises' raw material inventory days in the past week was mainly due to pre - Spring Festival stocking, and there is limited room for further inventory increase. - Northeast deep - processing enterprises have low raw material inventory, while Shandong's inventory is at a neutral level. The overall inventory - to - use ratio of deep - processing enterprises continues to rise but remains at a low level. - Recently, the inventory at northern ports has decreased, while that at southern ports has increased, and the overall inventory level is still low. - Overall, the inventory levels of mid - downstream links are low. Against the backdrop of poor overall demand expectations and the supply supplement of policy - related grain sources, the corn market has both support and pressure, maintaining a dynamic balance under the tug - of - war between bulls and bears. The operation strategy is to adopt a volatile mindset [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Analysis and Outlook - Corn futures: The near - month C03 contract had a large increase, and the C3 - C5 spread strengthened [7]. - Corn spot: Fluctuated strongly due to mid - downstream restocking and farmers' reluctance to sell [7]. - Corn sales progress: New - crop corn sales were relatively fast, but the pace slowed recently [7]. - Corn imports: Theoretical profit is good, but future arrivals are limited [7]. - Feed and aquaculture demand: High inventory of pigs and poultry, strong rigid demand for feed, but limited motivation for feed enterprises to increase inventory [7]. - Deep - processing demand: Northeast enterprises have low inventory, Shandong is at a neutral level, and the overall inventory - to - use ratio is rising but still low [7]. - North port corn: Inventory decreased recently [7]. - South port corn: Inventory increased recently [7]. 3.2 Domestic Corn Market Dynamics No specific content provided other than the headings. 3.3 Corn Starch Market Dynamics No specific content provided other than the headings. 3.4 International Corn Market Dynamics No specific content provided other than the headings.