南华期货棉花棉纱周报：震荡调整-20260116

Report Title - The title of the report is "South China Futures Cotton and Cotton Yarn Weekly Report - Oscillatory Adjustment", dated January 16, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating Core Views - Near - term: Under the pressure of downstream profit squeeze and a significant increase in the internal - external price difference, there is an upper limit on cotton prices. However, the current load of yarn mills remains stable, and the expansion of spinning capacity supports cotton consumption. With relatively low overall downstream inventory pressure, short - term cotton prices may oscillate within a narrow range. Attention should be paid to downstream imports and order situations [9] - Long - term: In recent years, the domestic downstream textile production capacity has expanded significantly, and Xinjiang yarn mills have maintained high - load operations, increasing the rigid consumption of cotton raw materials. Although China's cotton production has increased significantly, it still needs to import foreign cotton to fill the gap. The probability of further issuing additional cotton import quotas is low, so the supply - demand of domestic cotton in the new year may still be tight. Attention should be paid to the demand side affected by policy changes in the new year, as well as the adjustment of the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy policy and its impact on farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting [18][19] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The USDA's January global supply - demand forecast report slightly increased the price with a 7.7 - ton month - on - month decrease in US cotton production to 3.4% year - on - year. As of January 15, 2026, the cumulative national new - year cotton notarized inspection volume reached 691.88 tons, a year - on - year increase of 76.03 tons. The daily average notarized inspection volume has recently dropped to around 3 tons, and the new - cotton notarization work is nearing completion. The domestic cotton industrial and commercial inventory has significantly rebounded to a peak in recent years. However, restricted by import quotas, the overall supply increase in the new year has narrowed. With the expansion of cotton yarn production capacity, the rigid consumption of cotton has increased, and the market expects a potential supply - demand shortage at the end of this year. There is also an expected reduction in the cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in the 26/27 season. But after the strengthening of domestic cotton prices, downstream spinning profits have been squeezed, the internal - external cotton price difference has widened significantly, and the inflow of imported yarn may increase periodically, pressuring the upper limit of cotton prices [2] 1.2 Transaction - Type Strategy Recommendations - The price range of CF2605 is predicted to be between 14,000 and 15,000. It is recommended to lay out long positions on CF2605 during pull - backs [21][23] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in profits and sell call options (CF2605C15200) to collect premiums and reduce costs [21] - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in procurement costs and sell put options (CF2605P14000) to collect premiums and reduce costs [21] 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures Data: The closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton futures contracts (01, 05, 09) decreased last week, with respective decreases of 0.37%, 0.58%, and 0.77% [22] - Spot Data: The CC Index 3128B increased by 0.01%, while the CC Index 2227B and CC Index 2129B decreased by 0.01% and 0.03% respectively [22] - Spread Data: The CF1 - 5 spread increased by 30, the CF5 - 9 spread increased by 30, and the CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 60 [22] - Import Price: The FC Index M increased by 0.41%, and the FCY Index C32s increased by 0.2% [24] - Cotton Yarn Data: The futures price of cotton yarn decreased by 0.75%, and the spot price remained unchanged [24] Chapter 2: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive News: As of January 8, the national new - cotton picking progress was 99.9%, the selling rate was 99.5%, the processing rate was 94.5%, and the sales rate was 55.6%. In November, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles increased by 4.84% month - on - month and 4.19% year - on - year. In November 2025, the export volume of cotton products increased by 6.32% month - on - month and 9.84% year - on - year [25] - Negative News: In December 2025, the export of textiles and clothing decreased by 7.35% year - on - year. As of January 8, 2026, the cumulative net contracted export volume of US cotton decreased by 13.99% year - on - year [27] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Attention should be paid to the release of domestic textile and clothing consumption data in China, flower and yarn import - export data, and US cotton weekly export data [28] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement: At the beginning of last week, Zhengzhou cotton prices further declined under the influence of profit - taking. Both long and short positions significantly reduced, and the short - term trading enthusiasm in the market cooled. The RSI index fell to the neutral range, and prices entered an oscillatory adjustment phase [34] - Monthly Spread Structure: Currently, Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 shows a slight back structure supported by industrial end - taking, while contracts 05 and subsequent ones maintain a contango structure. The far - month contracts maintain the expectation of supply - demand tightness at the end of the year and have a stronger trend [37] - Basis Structure: This week, the cotton basis weakened slightly and then rebounded, remaining generally stable. The mainstream basis of machine - picked 31 - grade double 29/cotton with less than 3.5% impurity in Kashgar, southern Xinjiang, is mostly above CF05 + 850, and in northern Xinjiang, it is mostly above 1000 [40] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - Supported by policies and technological innovation, Xinjiang yarn mills have a cost advantage over those in the inland. Since September last year, domestic cotton prices have declined under the hedging pressure of ginning factories and the supply pressure of new - cotton listing, while yarn prices have remained relatively stable, and domestic yarn mill profits have recovered. However, since December, domestic cotton prices have oscillated upwards, and yarn prices have remained stable, squeezing yarn mill profits again. This week, cotton prices oscillated slightly upwards, yarn prices remained basically stable, and yarn mill profits continued to weaken slightly on a weekly basis [43] 4.2 Import Profit Tracking - Affected by the Xinjiang cotton ban and tariff policies, the internal and external cotton prices have shown relatively independent trends. This year, China's cotton import profit has been considerable, but the import quota is low, and the import volume has remained at a low level. In November 2025, China imported 12 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 3 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1 ton. The cumulative import volume in the 25/26 season is 31 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3 tons. This week, the internal and external cotton prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the import profit remained basically stable compared to last week [46] Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - A bumper harvest of Xinjiang cotton is expected in the new year. With the additional 20 - ton sliding - scale tariff quota issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the 89.4 - ton 1% tariff quota issued in 2026, the expected new - year cotton import volume is 110 tons. The probability of further issuing additional sliding - scale tariff quotas is low. Downstream, domestic demand may maintain a mild recovery supported by domestic macro - policies, and the easing of Sino - US trade relations is conducive to the recovery of China's textile and clothing exports, supporting the expected domestic cotton consumption [48][49]