固收专题：结构性货币政策降息后怎么看？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's reduction of various structural monetary policy tool interest rates by 25bp reflects support for the "five major articles of finance", helps stabilize the net interest margin of banks, and indicates a continued loose monetary policy, but does not directly lead to an immediate decline in interest rates or a follow - up reduction in LPR [5][13][14] - There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts (130bp) and interest rate cuts in 2026, but the probability of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low before the Two Sessions and the first release of 2026 economic data [5][14] - The central bank will increase liquidity injection, and the overnight interest rate is expected to be slightly lower than 1.40%, which does not mean a tightening of liquidity [20] - In 2026, the central bank's treasury bond trading will mainly cooperate with fiscal policies, and it is more concerned about risks of large - scale unilateral changes in interest rates [22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Structural Monetary Policy Interest Rate Cuts - On January 15, 2026, the central bank announced a series of monetary and financial policies, including a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in various structural monetary policy tool interest rates. After the cut, the 1Y agricultural and small - business re - loan and other special tool interest rates are 1.25%, lower than the 7DOMO policy rate [5][8][13] - The reduction in interest rates can reduce banks' interest - paying costs and help stabilize the net interest margin. It is estimated that by the end of December 2025, the balance of the central bank's structural monetary policy tools will be around 5.4 trillion yuan, and the interest savings after the rate cut will be about 13.5 billion yuan. Even if all tools are fully utilized, the interest savings will only slightly exceed 20 billion yuan [5][13] - The interest rate cut does not directly lead to a decline in interest rates, and it does not meet the conditions for an LPR follow - up reduction [5][13] 3.2 Future Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cut Space - The central bank stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in 2026 [14] - The current average statutory deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 6.3%, and it is expected that 5% is the bottom line, leaving a 130bp cut space [14] - The main constraint for interest rate cuts is the pressure on banks' net interest margins. Although there are factors conducive to stabilizing the net interest margin, the probability of a comprehensive interest rate cut before the Two Sessions and the first release of 2026 economic data is low [14] 3.3 Follow - up Capital Market Conditions - The central bank will continue to increase liquidity injection, keep liquidity abundant, and guide the overnight interest rate to run around the policy rate [20] - The overnight interest rate in December 2025 was generally below 1.30%. Due to the dislocation of repurchase operations, the overnight interest rate rose to 1.30% - 1.40%. It is estimated that an overnight interest rate slightly lower than 1.40% is appropriate, which does not mean a tightening of liquidity [20] 3.4 Follow - up Treasury Bond Trading - In 2025, the net investment of repurchase operations was 3.8 trillion yuan, mainly achieved through treasury bond trading [22] - Two perspectives can be used to observe the central bank's treasury bond holdings. In 2025, the balance of the central bank's claims on the central government decreased by 67 billion yuan, while the balance of other institutions' treasury bond holdings increased by 37 billion yuan, and the balance of local government bond holdings of other institutions increased by 290 billion yuan [22] - In 2026, the central bank's treasury bond trading will mainly cooperate with fiscal policies, help ensure the smooth issuance of treasury bonds at a reasonable cost, and play a role in preventing market risks. The adjustment of the 10 - year treasury bond yield range may not represent a clear regulatory target [22] 3.5 Other New Monetary and Financial Policies - Merge and use the agricultural and small - business re - loan and rediscount quotas, increase the agricultural and small - business re - loan quota by 500 billion yuan, and set up a private enterprise re - loan quota of 1 trillion yuan [8] - Increase the science and technology innovation and technological transformation re - loan quota by 400 billion yuan and expand the scope of support [8] - Merge and manage the private enterprise bond financing support tool and the science and technology innovation bond risk - sharing tool, with a total re - loan quota of 200 billion yuan [8] - Reduce the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% to support the de - stocking of the commercial real estate market [9]