银河期货甲醇日报-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the methanol market is complex, with high - level stable domestic supply, low - level external market operation, and strong expectations of domestic MTO shutdown. However, the unstable situation in the Middle East provides relatively strong support for methanol [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The futures market declined, closing at 2239 (- 45/-1.97%). In the spot market, production areas had different quotes: Inner Mongolia南线 was 1870 yuan/ton,北线 was 1820 yuan/ton, etc.; consumption areas also had various prices: Lunan was 2160 yuan/ton, etc.; and ports like Taicang were 2240 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - In the current cycle (20260110 - 20260116), the international methanol (excluding China) output was 866,709 tons, a decrease of 1190 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 59.41%, a decline of 0.08% from last week [3]. Logical Analysis - Supply side: Coal - to - methanol profit was around 320 yuan/ton, and the methanol start - up rate was stable at a high level, resulting in continuous abundant domestic supply. Import side: The US dollar price rose slightly, most Iranian devices stopped due to gas restrictions, non - Iranian start - up was stable, the overall external start - up was at a low level, the European and American markets were stable, the internal - external price difference narrowed slightly, the Southeast Asian re - export window closed, 235,000 tons of Iranian goods were loaded in January, non - Iranian supplies decreased, and the expected import volume in February was about 800,000 tons. Demand side: MTO losses continued to expand, raw material inventories were full, and rigid demand reduced purchases. Some MTO devices had different operating conditions. Inventory side: Import arrivals decreased slightly, the port inventory accumulation cycle ended, the basis was strong; and the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated slightly. Overall, the international device start - up rate continued to decline, the Iranian gas restriction expanded, the port spot liquidity was sufficient, the overall transaction was light, and the domestic supply was abundant. The inland MTO start - up was stable, the CTO external procurement ended, and the inland large - scale device had a fault. The Middle East was relatively stable, but the situation was becoming unstable, providing support for methanol [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long at low levels (pay attention to the Middle East situation). - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell call options [5][6]