有色金属周度报告-20260116

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The recent sharp decline in the lithium carbonate market is a rapid correction of the previous irrational rise, and the short - term sharp rise driven by policy expectations and capital sentiment has ended. In the short term, the price may need time to find a new balance, and attention should be paid to the spot price and social inventory. In the long term, focus on the actual demand fulfillment [34][35]. - The sharp rise in the Shanghai tin market is due to its fragile and concentrated global supply chain. In the short term, there is a risk of a high - level decline, and in the long term, attention should be paid to downstream demand and policy guidance [36][37][38]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The futures price of the CU2603 contract rose from 92,780 to 100,770, a weekly increase of 8.61%. The spot price increased from 100,590 to 101,780, a weekly increase of 1.18% [4]. - Aluminum: The futures price of the AL2603 contract decreased from 24,385 to 23,925, a weekly decrease of 1.89%. The spot price decreased from 24,020 to 24,010, a weekly decrease of 0.04% [4]. - Zinc: The futures price of the ZN2603 contract rose from 24,015 to 24,750, a weekly increase of 3.06%. The spot price increased from 24,040 to 24,840, a weekly increase of 3.33% [4]. - Lead: The futures price of the PB2603 contract rose from 17,395 to 17,475, a weekly increase of 0.46%. The spot price increased from 17,175 to 17,300, a weekly increase of 0.73% [4]. - Nickel: The futures price of the NI2603 contract rose from 139,220 to 141,590, a weekly increase of 1.70%. The spot price increased from 141,900 to 149,350, a weekly increase of 5.25% [4]. - Alumina: The futures price of the AO2605 contract decreased from 2,843 to 2,751, a weekly decrease of 3.24%. The spot price decreased from 2,710 to 2,690, a weekly decrease of 0.74% [4]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures price of the SI2605 contract decreased from 8,715 to 8,605, a weekly decrease of 1.26%. The spot price remained unchanged at 9,550 [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price of the LC2605 contract rose from 143,420 to 146,200, a weekly increase of 1.94%. The spot price increased from 139,100 to 156,250, a weekly increase of 12.33% [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures price of the PS2605 contract rose from 53,150 to 57,190, a weekly increase of 7.60%. The spot price increased from 52,300 to 52,400, a weekly increase of 0.19% [4]. 2. Copper Inventory - LME copper inventory increased from 141,000 tons to 141,100 tons, a weekly increase of 0.07%. - COMEX copper inventory increased from 515,000 tons to 538,700 tons, a weekly increase of 4.60%. - SHEF copper inventory increased from 180,500 tons to 213,500 tons, a weekly increase of 18.28% [21]. 3. Copper Concentrate Processing Fee - As of January 16, 2026, the spot TC of copper concentrate was - 46.00 US dollars/ton, remaining unchanged weekly and at a historical low. The spot RC was - 4.6 cents/pound, and the tight supply expectation at the mine end still exists [24]. 4. Lithium Spodumene Concentrate Index - As of January 16, 2026, the latest quote was 1,980 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 100 US dollars/ton [27]. 5. Tin Ore Import Data - In November 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates were 15,099.34 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.40% and a month - on - month increase of 29.81%. Imports from Myanmar were 7,190.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 203.77% and a year - on - year increase of 133.38%. Imports from Congo (Kinshasa) were 3,225.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.46% [30]. 6. Non - ferrous Metal Demand - In December 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.296 million and 3.272 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and 4.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% and 6.2%. In 2025, cumulative automobile production and sales were 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% [32]. - In December 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.718 million and 1.71 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 8.6% and 6.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.3% and 7.2%. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 52.3% of total vehicle sales [32]. - From January to November, the housing construction area was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. Residential construction area decreased by 10.0%. New housing starts decreased by 20.5%, and residential new starts decreased by 19.9%. Housing completion area decreased by 18.0%, and residential completion area decreased by 20.1% [33]. - As of the end of November, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. Solar power generation installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%. Wind power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4%. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment from January to November were 2,858 hours, 289 hours lower than the same period last year [33]. 7. Strategy Recommendation Lithium Carbonate - Short - term: After the sharp decline, the price may need time to find a new balance, and attention should be paid to the spot price and social inventory [34][35]. - Long - term: Focus on the actual demand fulfillment [35]. Tin - Short - term: Be vigilant against the risk of a high - level decline [37]. - Long - term: Pay attention to the actual downstream demand and new policy guidance [38].