地缘扰动，甲醇宽幅震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal mine operating rate is stable, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 73% and the Yulin area at 50% as of January 15th. Coal production has recovered, and the daily coal output in Erdos and Yulin is around 4.2 million tons. The pithead price has stopped falling and rebounded slightly [4]. - The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 320 - 350 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains high and stable. Domestic supply is continuously abundant. The US dollar price has risen slightly. Most Iranian plants have shut down due to gas restrictions, non - Iranian operating rates have declined, and the overall foreign operating rate is at a low level. The import volume in January is expected to be around 1.2 billion tons [4]. - The operating rate of MTO plants has rebounded. Some MTO plants are operating stably, while some are under - loaded or shut down. Port inventories are continuously decreasing, and inland enterprise inventories are fluctuating slightly [4]. - The international plant operating rate continues to decline, and gas restrictions in Iran have expanded. The daily output in Iran has dropped to around 6,000 tons. The spot liquidity at ports is sufficient, but the overall trading is light. The import volume in February is expected to be around 800,000 tons [4]. - Coal prices have basically stopped rising, coal - to - methanol profits are stable, inland operating rates are high, market circulation is abundant, and factory prices have fallen weakly. The operating rate of inland MTO is stable, and the domestic MTO shutdown expectation is strong. The Middle East situation is unstable, which provides strong support for methanol [4]. - Trading strategies include gradually building long positions in 05 contracts on dips for unilateral trading, paying attention to positive spreads for arbitrage, and selling put options in the over - the - counter market [4] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Supply and demand analysis: Coal mine operating rates are stable, coal - to - methanol profits are good, domestic methanol supply is abundant, and foreign supply is affected by Iranian gas restrictions. MTO plant operating rates have rebounded, and port inventories are decreasing [4] - Trading strategies: Unilateral trading: gradually build long positions in 05 contracts on dips; Arbitrage: pay attention to positive spreads; Over - the - counter: sell put options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking 2. Core Data Weekly Changes - Supply - Domestic: As of January 15th, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 77.63%, up 0.99 percentage points from last week and 3.48 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load as of December 18th was 70.22%, up 1.35 percentage points from last week [5] - Supply - International: From January 10th to 16th, 2026, the international methanol (excluding China) output was 866,709 tons, a decrease of 1,190 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 59.41%, down 0.08% from last week [5] - Supply - Import: From January 8th to 14th, 2026, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 240,400 tons [5] - Demand - MTO: As of January 15th, 2026, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 53.84%, down 13.22 percentage points from last week. The national olefin plant operating rate was 86.93% [5] - Demand - Traditional: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 2.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 17.78%. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 76.99%. The formaldehyde operating rate was 34.07% [5] - Demand - Direct Sales: The weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the Northwest region was 46,400 tons, a decrease of 47,800 tons from the previous statistical day, a month - on - month decrease of 50.74% [5] - Inventory - Enterprise: The production enterprise inventory was 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise order backlog was 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13% [5] - Inventory - Port: As of January 14th, 2026, the total methanol port inventory was 1.4353 million tons, a decrease of 101,900 tons from the previous period [5] - Valuation: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was around 390 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi it was 380 yuan/ton. The port - northern line price difference was 370 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference was 110 yuan/ton. MTO losses narrowed, and the basis was stable [5] 2. Spot Prices - The price in Taicang was 2,210 yuan/ton (-40), and the price in the northern line was 1,820 yuan/ton (-20) [8]