原油日报：原油震荡下行-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that crude oil prices will fluctuate and consolidate due to factors such as OPEC+ maintaining production plans, high US oil inventories, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and concerns about crude oil demand [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and continue to suspend production increases in February and March 2026 [1] - During the off - peak season of crude oil demand, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have accumulated more than expected, and gasoline inventories have increased more than expected, with overall oil product inventories continuing to rise [1][3] - US crude oil production has decreased slightly but remains near the historical high [1][3] - Trump warned that if India does not limit its purchases of Russian oil as required by the US, the US may further increase tariffs on Indian products. India's imports of Russian crude oil in December 2025 fell to a three - year low, down one - third from the peak in June [1] - The crack spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the US are low. The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 decreased slightly and has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months, leading the market to remain worried about crude oil demand [1] - Exports from the Middle East have increased, and global floating crude oil storage is high. The EIA's January monthly report has raised the surplus of crude oil supply in 2026 [1] - Trump said that Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US, and Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The US Energy Secretary claims that the US will "indefinitely" control Venezuelan oil sales [1] - There is unrest in Iran, and Trump has threatened to interfere. The US has not ruled out the possibility of military action, and the geopolitical risk in Iran remains unresolved [1] - The Russia - Ukraine negotiations have not made further progress, and Trump has passed a sanctions bill against Russia, authorizing the imposition of additional tariffs on countries importing Russian oil [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, 2603, fell 3.01% to 438.8 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 437.1 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 442.5 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 1964 to 41,539 lots [2] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - The IEA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [3] - On the evening of January 14, EIA data showed that for the week ending January 9, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.391 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.702 million barrels), 1.88% higher than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 8.977 million barrels (expected to increase by 3.565 million barrels); refined oil inventories decreased by 29,000 barrels (expected to increase by 512,000 barrels); and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 745,000 barrels [3] - On the supply side, the latest OPEC monthly report showed that OPEC's crude oil production in October was reduced by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its production in November 2025 decreased by 1,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.480 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+'s crude oil production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 43.06 million barrels per day. US crude oil production for the week of January 9 decreased by 58,000 barrels per day to 13.753 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high [3] 3.4 Consumption Data - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.67% increase compared to the same period last year, changing from being lower than the same period last year to being higher [4] - Gasoline weekly production increased by 1.64% week - on - week to 8.304 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 8.495 million barrels per day, the same as the same period last year [4] - Diesel weekly production increased by 28.20% week - on - week to 4.096 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 3.707 million barrels per day, a 2.23% increase compared to the same period last year. The rebound of gasoline and diesel drove the single - week supply of US crude oil products to increase by 9.27% week - on - week [4]