南华期货煤焦产业周报：上下调整空间有限-20260116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, the contradiction of coking coal surplus intensifies, and the winter storage replenishment is more than half completed. The short - term futures market may be adjusted due to surplus intensification, insufficient winter storage drive, and weakening macro - sentiment. However, during the Spring Festival, mine closures and the gradual resumption of hot metal production are expected to improve the supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke, and the adjustment space of the futures market is limited. In the long - term, if there is a combination of "domestic supply recovery exceeding expectations" and "weakening macro - sentiment", the medium - and long - term prices of coking coal and coke will face greater downward pressure [2]. - It is expected that coking coal and coke will maintain a range - bound operation in the short term. Investors can consider constructing a short strangle option portfolio strategy [3]. - The "14th Five - Year Plan" macro - policy expectations and the "anti - deflation" policy in the opening year will provide bottom support for far - month contracts. The opening of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and global liquidity easing are beneficial to the overall valuation of commodities [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: Domestic mine production of coking coal is increasing steadily. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at ports is at a high level year - on - year. Australian coal supply is tight, and the export price is firm. The arrival of coking coal at ports has declined from a high level [2]. - Demand side: Coking enterprises have started a round of price increases, but steel mills are resistant. Recently, the spot price of coking coal has rebounded significantly, the immediate coking profit has shrunk, and the operating rate of coking enterprises has decreased slightly. The maintenance volume of blast furnaces in steel mills has increased, and the hot metal production has decreased slightly, resulting in an intensified coking coal surplus. However, the profitability rate of steel mills has continued to recover, and the decline space of hot metal is limited. It is expected that production will resume steadily at the end of January, and the demand for coking coal and coke is expected to improve [2]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendations - Construct a short strangle option portfolio strategy for short - term coking coal and coke investment [3]. 3.1.3 Trading Logic - Near - term: The downstream has started winter storage, and the spot price of coking coal has certain support. The hot metal production has basically bottomed out, and the expectation of steel mill复产 is strong, so the demand for coking coal and coke is expected to stabilize [7]. - Long - term: The macro - policy in the "14th Five - Year Plan" opening year and the "anti - deflation" policy will support far - month contracts. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and global liquidity easing are positive for commodity valuations [9]. 3.1.4 Market Positioning - Trend judgment: Oscillatory operation. - Price range: JM2605 operates in the range of 1120 - 1250; J2605 operates in the range of 1650 - 1800 [10]. 3.1.5 Basic Data Overview - Coking coal supply: The operating rate and daily output of 523 mining enterprises and 314 coal washing plants have increased [13]. - Coking coal inventory: The inventory of 523 mining enterprises, 314 coal washing plants, independent coking enterprises, and 247 steel mills has increased, while the port inventory has decreased slightly [13]. - Coking supply: The production capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills have decreased slightly [15]. - Coking inventory: The inventory of independent coking enterprises has decreased, while the inventory of 247 steel mills and ports has increased [15]. - Coking coal and coke futures prices: The month - to - month spreads and basis of coking coal and coke have different changes [16]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The central bank has introduced a series of policies to support high - quality economic development. The individual income tax refund policy for home purchases has been extended. The government has promoted fiscal - financial cooperation to boost domestic demand. The supply and consumption of five major steel products have increased, and the inventory has decreased. The prices of some coking coal varieties have risen. The supply of Australian coking coal is tight, and the price has risen. Coking enterprises have started the first round of price increases [23][24][25]. - Negative information: The inventory of imported iron ore at ports has increased, the customs clearance pressure of coking coal is high, and there is a rumor of increased customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Attention Events - Monday: Pay attention to China's GDP growth rate and total GDP in 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in December 2025, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025. - Tuesday: Pay attention to China's one - year loan prime rate as of January 20. - Thursday: Pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 10 and the annual rate of the core PCE price index in the US in November [26]. 3.3 Futures Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The main contract of coking coal rebounded to around 1250 and then fell back. The subsequent support levels are 1120 - 1130. The trend of coke follows that of coking coal, and the support level for the 05 contract is 1640 - 1650 [27]. - Month - to - month spread structure: The 5 - 9 spreads of coking coal and coke changed little this week, showing a low - level oscillation. Attention can be paid to the 5 - 9 inter - month reverse arbitrage of coking coal, with the recommended entry range of (- 40, - 50) [31]. - Basis structure: This week, the main futures market of coking coal and coke oscillated and declined, the spot price of coking coal increased, and coke started the first round of price increases, so the 05 basis strengthened [34]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Coking coal mines' theoretical profit has expanded due to the increase in coking coal spot prices. The immediate coking profit has shrunk because of the increase in coking coal prices for coke production. The profitability of downstream steel mills is expected to shrink with the price increase of coke [38]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The long - term agreement price of Mongolian coking coal in the first quarter has rebounded by about $7. The port customs clearance enthusiasm is high, and the inventory pressure in the supervision area is large. The coal shipping volume has decreased this week, and the price difference between Australian coal and domestic coal has continued to expand. The subsequent arrival pressure of coking coal is expected to ease [41][46]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Coking Coal Supply - Side Deduction - In January, coking coal supply is expected to increase, with an estimated average weekly production of about 9.5 million tons. The average weekly import volume of coking coal in January is revised up to about 2.55 million tons. The theoretical hot - metal balance point of coking coal in January is estimated to be 238,000 tons per day [63]. 3.5.2 Coke Supply - Side Deduction - The four - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and the fifth - round price cut is still under negotiation. The immediate coking profit is under pressure, and the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is average. The average weekly production of coke in January is expected to be about 7.7 million tons. The net export volume of coke is linearly extrapolated, with an estimated average weekly export volume of 150,000 tons in January. The theoretical hot - metal balance point of coke in January is estimated to be 233,000 tons per day [66]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side Deduction - The hot - metal production is expected to stabilize and rebound after a short - term decline. The average daily hot - metal production in January is estimated to be 227,000 tons per day. The average theoretical hot - metal surplus of coking coal in January is about 11,000 tons per day, and that of coke is about 6,000 tons per day [69]. 3.5.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke from Week 45 in 2025 to Week 57 in 2026 are estimated, including production, import, total supply, supply converted to theoretical hot metal, actual hot metal, inventory, and the difference between theoretical and actual hot metal [71].