沥青日报：震荡下行-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to focus on the situation in Venezuela and adopt a reverse spread strategy. The supply and demand of asphalt are affected by factors such as refinery production adjustment, downstream construction, and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply Side: This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. Next week, Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical will switch to asphalt production, while Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical plan to stop production, keeping the asphalt operating rate low [1]. - Demand Side: This week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 15% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. A new round of rain and snow is coming, with northern road construction gradually ending and southern projects also entering the final stage, and the subsequent rigid demand will further slow down [1]. - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory rate continued to rise week - on - week and remained near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Geopolitical Impact: The US military action in Venezuela may affect the production and cost of domestic asphalt. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. It is necessary to pay attention to the shortage of raw materials in domestic refineries [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract fell 1.48% to 3,130 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,123 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,154 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 5,652 to 193,865 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region dropped to 3,090 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract rose to - 40 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [4]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply - Side Fundamentals: Refineries such as Liaoning Zhende resumed production, and the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points month - on - month compared with January - October 2025 but was still negative. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 4.7%, a slight decline from - 4.3% in January - October 2025. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was - 1.1%, a further decline from - 0.1% in January - October 2025. As of the week of January 16, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined, and the road asphalt operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 15% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. From the perspective of social financing stock, from January to December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared with January - November, and the recovery of enterprises' medium - and long - term financing demand was still weak [5]. - Inventory Fundamentals: As of the week of January 16, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 14.1% compared with the week of January 9, and was near the lowest level in recent years [5].