国投期货软商品日报-20260116

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★☆ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding operation suggestions, mostly suggesting temporary observation [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined. It was previously supported by reality, expectations, and funds. Downstream demand is average, and the reduction of Xinjiang's planting area needs further observation. Short - term adjustment may continue. As of December, national commercial cotton inventory was 5784700 tons, and as of January 8, cumulative processed lint was 6969000 tons. Spinning mills' raw material demand has resilience, but downstream orders are average. Suggest temporary observation [2] Sugar - Overnight US sugar fluctuated. In the international market, Brazil's mid - south production data in December was neutral. The current season's production is ending, and attention turns to the next season's output forecast. Meteorological models show less rainfall in Brazil in Q1. The sugar - alcohol ratio has dropped, and the next season's sugar production in Brazil may decrease. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. Sales data was relatively positive, but sales volume dropped due to bearish sentiment. Although Guangxi has a strong production increase expectation in the 25/26 season, the production progress is slow. Suggest temporary observation [3] Apple - Futures prices declined. Spot prices were stable. During the Spring Festival stocking period, merchants mainly packaged their own goods, and the purchase of farmers' apples was less. The quantity of packaged gift boxes decreased slightly. As of January 15, national cold - storage apple inventory was 6555700 tons, a 7% year - on - year decrease, and the de - stocking volume was 180000 tons, a 9.9% year - on - year increase. The market trading logic has shifted to demand. Due to high purchase prices and strong reluctance to sell, the de - stocking speed may be affected. Suggest a bearish operation idea [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Futures prices of natural rubber (RU), 20 - rubber (NR), and butadiene rubber (BR) declined. Domestic natural rubber spot prices were stable, while synthetic rubber spot prices dropped. Global natural rubber supply is in the reduction period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate was stable this week. Domestic tire operating rates rebounded significantly. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased to 568200 tons, while China's butadiene rubber social inventory decreased to 146000 tons. Demand is gradually recovering, with a decrease in natural rubber supply, an increase in synthetic rubber supply, an increase in natural rubber inventory, and a decrease in synthetic rubber inventory. Cost support is strong, but market sentiment is weak. Suggest temporary observation [6] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to decline. Constrained by weak downstream demand, the short - term fundamentals are average. As of January 15, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2014000 tons, a 0.3% month - on - month increase. The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp is narrowing, and foreign offers for both have increased. Paper mills purchase pulp based on rigid demand, and the increase in base paper prices is relatively weak. Suggest temporary observation [7] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices were stable. Foreign offers decreased, and domestic spot prices were weak. Short - term port arrivals will decrease. As of January 9, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 57500 cubic meters, a 1.77% week - on - week increase. After entering the off - season, demand decreased, but it was still relatively high week - on - week. As of January 9, the total national port log inventory was 2690000 cubic meters, a 0.75% month - on - month increase. Low inventory supports prices. Suggest temporary observation [8]