每日核心期货品种分析-20260116

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on January 16, domestic futures main contracts mostly declined. Polysilicon and rapeseed oil rose over 2%, while lithium carbonate and container shipping to Europe routes dropped over 8%, and tin and nickel futures also fell significantly. Different futures varieties showed distinct trends due to various factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, geopolitical events, and policy changes [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of January 16, domestic futures main contracts showed a pattern of more declines than increases. Polysilicon and rapeseed oil rose over 2%, glass rose over 1%; lithium carbonate and container shipping to Europe routes dropped over 8%, tin dropped over 6%, nickel, butadiene rubber, fuel oil, caustic soda, and SC crude oil dropped over 3%, and apples, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and copper dropped over 2%. In the stock index futures, the CSI 300 futures (IF) main contract dropped 0.29%, the SSE 50 futures (IH) main contract dropped 0.64%, the CSI 500 futures (IC) main contract rose 0.40%, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM) main contract rose 0.25%. In the bond futures, the 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) main contract rose 0.03%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF) main contract rose 0.05%, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T) main contract rose 0.01%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL) main contract dropped 0.09%. In terms of capital flow, hot - rolled coil 2605, rebar 2605, and rapeseed oil 2605 had capital inflows, while lithium carbonate 2605, silver 2604, and gold 2602 had capital outflows [5][6]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Copper (Cu): Copper futures opened low and moved lower. Supply - side issues included difficulties for smelters to profit from long - term contracts, and by - products like sulfuric acid and gold becoming major profit sources. The refined copper output was expected to decline in January. The merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore might affect the global copper supply. Demand from end - users was strong, but the copper products sector was cautious. Copper inventory increased significantly. Although the market's expectation of copper being included in the tariff scope weakened, copper futures were still prone to rise due to tight supply [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: It opened high and hit the daily limit down. In December 2025, the output was 99,000 tons, a 3.0% month - on - month increase. The weekly inventory decreased slightly. The demand from energy - storage batteries remained strong, but the market was pressured by the expected increase in supply from the recycling end. The government's adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy for batteries might impact the market. The strong situation of lithium carbonate remained unchanged, but the market was volatile [10]. - Crude Oil: OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. The EIA data showed an unexpected increase in US crude and gasoline inventories. US crude production decreased slightly but remained near the historical high. Geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran and the US - India - Russia oil trade relationship affected the market. The market was worried about demand, and the supply was in an oversupply situation. The price was expected to fluctuate and consolidate [11][13]. - Asphalt: The asphalt production rate increased slightly this week, but the expected production in January 2026 decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The downstream construction was restricted by funds and weather. The inventory rate of asphalt refineries continued to rise. The geopolitical situation in Venezuela affected the supply of raw materials for domestic asphalt production. The price was expected to fluctuate, and an inverse spread strategy was recommended [14][16]. - PP: After the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate decreased slightly. The PP enterprise operating rate remained stable at a relatively low level. The cost decreased due to the easing of the Iran situation. The supply increased with new capacity coming on - stream. The downstream demand was limited before the Spring Festival. The market was expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread was expected to narrow [17]. - Plastic: The plastic operating rate decreased slightly. The downstream PE operating rate decreased, and the demand from the agricultural film sector continued to decline. The cost decreased with the easing of the Iran situation. The supply increased with new capacity coming on - stream. The market was expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread was expected to narrow [18][19]. - PVC: The upstream calcium carbide price was stable. The PVC operating rate was basically stable, but the downstream operating rate decreased. The export orders decreased, and the social inventory continued to increase. The cancellation of the export tax - rebate policy might stimulate a rush - to - export phenomenon. The 03 - 05 contracts were expected to fluctuate strongly [20]. - Coking Coal: Coking coal opened low and moved higher but declined during the day. The coking coal options were listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The supply from imported coal decreased, while domestic production increased. The inventory transferred from upstream to downstream. The demand from steel mills and coking enterprises was expected to increase during the winter storage period, but the upward momentum was limited due to weak macro - sentiment. The price was expected to fluctuate widely [22]. - Urea: Urea opened low and moved higher but declined during the day. The market trading was not active, and the downstream was resistant to high prices. The daily output was expected to remain above 200,000 tons. The agricultural demand increased, and the industrial demand from compound fertilizer and melamine factories also rose. The inventory decreased. The price was expected to adjust at a high level in the short term [23].