塑料日报：震荡下行-20260116

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 16, new maintenance devices such as Guoneng Yulin LDPE were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 85%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%, and orders for agricultural films continued to decline. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has fallen due to the easing of the situation in Iran. There has been new plastic production capacity put into operation recently, and the operating rate is higher than that of PP. The plastic supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range in the near future. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - New maintenance devices such as Guoneng Yulin LDPE were added on January 16, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 85%. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and packaging film orders decreased slightly. After the New Year's Day, petrochemical inventory reduction was good, and the current inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The situation in Iran has cooled down, and the crude oil price has fallen. There has been new plastic production capacity put into operation recently. The plastic supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated downward, closing at 6695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.78%. The trading volume was between 6685 - 6857 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 3981 lots to 471487 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market mostly declined, with the range of increase or decrease between - 150 to +0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6650 - 6970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8900 - 9210 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6870 - 8290 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 16, new maintenance devices such as Guoneng Yulin LDPE were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 85%, which is at a neutral level [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 16, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons to 490,000 tons, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory reduction after the New Year's Day was good, and the current inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $64/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $725/ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $745/ton [4].