连连数字（02598）：快速增长的独立跨境支付服务商

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Lianlian Digital with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 10.20, corresponding to a 2026 estimated price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 5x [1][17]. Core Insights - Lianlian Digital is a leading independent digital payment service provider in China, primarily offering cross-border payment solutions for Chinese merchants, facilitating foreign currency collection abroad and repatriation to China [13][30]. - The cross-border payment market has significant growth potential, driven by increasing global trade and e-commerce penetration, with forecasts indicating that China's cross-border payment total payment volume (TPV) will reach CNY 17.1 trillion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of approximately 22.1% from 2025 to 2028 [13][23]. - Lianlian's competitive advantages include a comprehensive global licensing network and partnerships, enabling it to support transactions in over 130 currencies across more than 100 countries [14][30]. Financial Performance and Projections - For the first half of 2025, Lianlian's total TPV reached CNY 2.1 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 32%, with cross-border payment TPV at CNY 198.5 billion, up 94% year-on-year [9][15]. - The company expects to achieve revenues of CNY 4.021 billion in 2025, with a projected net profit of CNY 1.442 billion, primarily driven by gains from equity disposals and dilution benefits from capital increases [6][16]. - The adjusted net profit for 1H25 was approximately CNY 0.6 billion, indicating a near break-even point, with expectations for profitability improvements in the long term [8][16]. Market Position and Strategy - Lianlian's market share in China's cross-border payment industry is projected to increase from 2.9% in 2023 to 3.8% in 2024, reflecting its expanding footprint in the sector [13][15]. - The company is focused on enhancing its payment technology and infrastructure, with a commitment to R&D expenditures of around 20-30% of revenue, aimed at optimizing cross-border payment services [10][14]. - Lianlian's business model includes not only cross-border payments but also domestic payment services and value-added services, which are increasingly contributing to revenue growth [31][60].