黑色金属日报-20260116

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a short-term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current disk, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for the upward trend, but poor operability on the disk [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel and hot-rolled coil [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★, the specific meaning is not clearly defined in the given content [1] - Silicomanganese: The rating is not provided in the given content Core Views - The steel market has minor supply-demand contradictions, with a cautious market sentiment. The disk is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility at high levels [3] - The coke market is likely to follow a weak oscillation pattern. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage continues and the impact of relevant policies [4] - The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory increase and policy expectations [6] - The silicomanganese market is affected by factors such as inventory structure and cost support. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant impacts and cost changes [7] - The ferrosilicon market is affected by policies and cost factors. The demand has certain resilience, and attention should be paid to relevant impacts and cost support [8] Summary by Directory Steel - Today's disk rose first and then fell. The apparent demand for thread steel increased this week, with a slight decline in production and a slower inventory accumulation rhythm. The demand for hot-rolled coil improved, with a slight increase in production and a continued decline in inventory, but the pressure still needs to be relieved [2] - Steel mill profits have marginally recovered. Due to insufficient downstream carrying capacity, blast furnace复产 has slowed down, and pig iron production has declined [2] - From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment has continued to widen, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment have continued to decline. Overall domestic demand remains weak, but steel exports reached a new high in December [2] - The supply-demand contradiction is not significant, the market sentiment is cautious, and the disk is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in the overall market trend [2] Iron Ore - Today's disk showed a weak oscillation. On the supply side, global shipments decreased seasonally compared with the previous period, and the phased supply peak has passed. The domestic arrival volume remains high in the short term, and port inventories continue to accumulate [3] - On the demand side, the terminal demand in the off-season has improved compared with the previous period. This week, pig iron production stopped increasing and started to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [3] - Steel mill inventories of imported ore have increased but are still at a low level. The expectation of winter storage replenishment demand still exists [3] - The sentiment in the commodity market is fluctuating. The fundamental situation of iron ore itself is relatively loose. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility at high levels [3] Coke - The price oscillated downward during the day. The first round of price increase for coke has been proposed and is expected to be implemented next week. Coking profits are average, daily production has slightly decreased, and coke inventories have slightly increased [4] - The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream pig iron production remains at an off-season level. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage continues. The profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of pressing prices for raw materials is still strong [4] - The coke disk has a premium. The market has certain expectations for coal-related policies. However, affected by the increase in the total inventory of coking coal and the relatively high customs clearance data of Mongolian coal, the price is likely to follow a weak oscillation pattern [4] Coking Coal - The price oscillated downward during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,440 vehicles. The production of coking coal mines has increased significantly, and the spot auction transactions have improved. Driven by the increase in the disk price, the transaction price has increased [6] - The total inventory of coking coal has slightly increased, and the production-side inventory has slightly decreased, reflecting the winter storage actions in the market [6] - The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream pig iron production remains at an off-season level. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage continues. The profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of pressing prices for raw materials is still strong [6] - The coking coal disk has a premium over Mongolian coal. The market has certain expectations for coal-related policies. However, affected by the increase in inventory and customs clearance data, the price is likely to be weak and volatile in the short term [6] Silicomanganese - The price oscillated downward during the day. Driven by the rebound of the disk, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. Currently, there are structural problems in the port inventory of manganese ore, and the balance is relatively fragile [7] - The smelting end of silicomanganese pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the formula of manganese ore for furnace charging. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore is likely to increase [7] - The spot transaction price of manganese ore has increased last week. The pig iron production has decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicomanganese has slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the relevant impacts of "anti-involution" and observe the cost support [7] Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated downward during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal supply guarantee has increased, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in power costs and blue carbon prices [8] - The pig iron production has rebounded to a high level. The export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. The overall demand still has certain resilience [8] - The supply of ferrosilicon has decreased significantly, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the relevant impacts of "anti-involution" and observe the cost support [8]