建筑行业2025年度业绩前瞻：传统建筑经营承压，化学和专业工程盈利向好

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (首次) [3] Core Insights - Traditional construction is under pressure due to funding constraints, while chemical and specialized engineering sectors are performing relatively well. In 2025, local government special bonds are expected to reach 4.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. However, the proportion of these bonds allocated to broad infrastructure has decreased to about 30% from 45% in 2024. Overall, project funding availability remains insufficient, impacting construction rates and progress, leading to a projected profit decline of 10-20% for construction companies. The real estate sector is also facing challenges, with significant declines in property sales and new construction starts, resulting in an expected profit drop of 5-10% for the housing construction industry. The domestic steel structure and traditional engineering sectors are experiencing intensified price competition, with short-term profit improvements unlikely. However, leading companies may see profit growth due to scale advantages and overseas market expansion. The chemical engineering sector is expected to see profit growth of 5-15% due to strong order backlogs. The landscaping and decoration industries face demand shortages, but leading firms are gradually recovering profitability due to improved cash flow and project quality [1][2] Summary by Sections Traditional Construction - The traditional construction sector is facing significant challenges due to funding constraints and a decrease in project funding availability, leading to a projected profit decline of 10-20% [1] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with property sales and new construction starts down by 7.8% and 19.9% respectively, resulting in a profit decline of 5-10% for housing construction [1] Chemical and Specialized Engineering - The chemical engineering sector is expected to see profit growth of 5-15% due to strong order backlogs, while specialized engineering sectors are benefiting from emerging industries like AI and semiconductors [1] Steel Structure and Traditional Engineering - The domestic steel structure and traditional engineering sectors are facing intense price competition, with short-term profit improvements unlikely, although leading companies may benefit from overseas market expansion [1] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued high-dividend state-owned enterprises such as China State Construction and Sichuan Road & Bridge, as well as leading steel structure companies like Honglu Steel Structure and Jinggong Steel Structure. Additionally, companies involved in emerging industries like China Chemical and Zhengzhong Design are also recommended for investment [2]