2025年12月金融数据点评：居民降杠杆，财政收敛中

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector [4] Core Insights - In December 2025, the total credit increment for the year was 16.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.8 trillion yuan year-on-year, which corresponds to the loan gap created by local government debt [5] - The report forecasts that the new credit for 2026 will be between 14.5 trillion and 16 trillion yuan [5] - Social financing (社融) continued to decline, down 0.2 percentage points to 8.3% in December, primarily due to a contraction in fiscal spending [5] - The M1 growth rate fell to 3.8%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points, indicating a significant impact from fiscal tightening [5] - M2 growth rebounded to 8.5%, driven by a notable increase in non-bank deposits [5] - The report highlights a trend of residents saving more and borrowing less, with a decrease in both long-term and short-term loans [5] Summary by Sections Credit and Financing - The total credit increment for December was a decrease of 0.08 trillion yuan year-on-year, while social financing credit increased by 0.13 trillion yuan, mainly contributed by the corporate sector [5] - The report notes that the increase in corporate loans is partly due to a low base from December 2024 and the effects of strict payment policies introduced in March 2025 [5] Monetary Indicators - M1 growth rate decreased to 3.8%, with a monthly increment decline of 1.04 trillion yuan, reflecting the impact of fiscal tightening [5] - M2 growth rate increased to 8.5%, primarily due to a significant rise in non-bank deposits, which is attributed to the low base from the previous year [5] Resident and Corporate Loans - In December, long-term loans to residents decreased by 0.29 trillion yuan, while short-term loans decreased by 0.16 trillion yuan, indicating a trend of reduced borrowing among residents [5] - The report emphasizes that the corporate sector has seen an increase in short-term loans and bond financing, likely due to the new payment regulations affecting large enterprises [5] Fiscal and Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that macro liquidity will continue to contract, with fiscal policies remaining tight and residents continuing to reduce leverage [5] - The overall trend suggests a stable but slightly improving fundamental outlook for the banking sector, with long-term absolute returns expected [5]